Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: EXTENSION OF FLOOD WATCH TO 1 PM SATURDAY THATLL
INCLUDE ALL OF SE KS.

TONIGHT & SATURDAY:
NUMEROUS TSRA ADVANCING N FROM NW OK ACROSS SW & SC KS. CONVECTION
CAUSED BY STRONG SFC-850MB MOSITRUE ADVECTION INDUCED BY PERSISTENT
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUING OVER ERN NM. WITH SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROF ORIENTED N-S OVER WRN FRINGE OF ROCKIES, TSRA TO PERSIST OVER
NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA THRU SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH SOAKED
GROUNDS & RISING RIVERS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS, EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH TIL
SAT AFTERNOON THAT NOW INCLUDES SE KS COUNTIES OF ALLEN, LABETTE,
MONTGOMERY, NEOSHO, WILSON & WOODSON. MOISTURE-LADEN ENVIRONMENT
DICTATES NARROWING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE ALL AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
ONGOING CONVECTION THATLL SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST TONIGHT & SATURDAY
WILL LIFT NE AS PARENT MID-UPPER LOW MOVES IN LIKE MANNER. HOWEVER,
NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT AS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
500-MB VORT LOBE SCOOTS NE OVER WRN & CENTRAL KS. ETA80 MOST AGGRES-
SIVE IN DEPICTION OF STRONG 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SC & CENTRAL
KS DURING 1A-7A TIMEFRAME WHICH, CONSIDERING OVERALL PATTERN, MAKES
SENSE. AS SUCH HAVE PRESSED HARDER ON POP THROTTLE OVER BOTH AREAS
(MORE SO CENTRAL KS WHERE THETA-E GRADIENT TIGHTEST) ASSIGNING 50%
POP TO CENTRAL KS. RESULTANT RAINFALL PLUS BEHAVIOR OF OVERALL PATTERN
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY() AS NEW FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR CENTRAL & SC KS.

SUNDAY:
GOOD CHANCES FOR CONTINUED TSRA AS MID-UPPER TROF ASSUMES NEGATIVE
TILT OVER WRN KS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER BOTH CENTRAL & SC
KS TO 40-50%. WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE EVEN FURTHER BUT DID NOT SO AS TO
ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

NEXT WEEK:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  83  67  86 /  90  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      66  83  66  85 / 100  40  50  60
NEWTON          67  82  67  86 /  90  60  40  50
ELDORADO        68  82  67  86 /  90  60  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  83  67  86 /  90  50  40  50
RUSSELL         64  82  64  84 /  80  30  60  50
GREAT BEND      65  83  64  84 /  90  20  50  60
SALINA          66  82  66  85 /  90  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       66  82  66  85 /  90  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     70  81  68  87 /  60  70  40  40
CHANUTE         69  80  68  87 /  70  80  50  40
IOLA            69  80  68  87 /  70  80  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 2 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BARTON...BUTLER...CHASE...
CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...ELK...ELLSWORTH...GREENWOOD...HARPER...
HARVEY...KINGMAN...LABETTE...LINCOLN...MARION...MCPHERSON...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...RENO...RICE...RUSSELL...SALINE...
SEDGWICK...SUMNER...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

99/ES

*CORRECTED TONIGHT & SATURDAY PORTION OF DISCUSSION TO INCLUDE NEOSHO
& WILSON COUNTIES WHICH HAD BEEN INADVERTENTLY OVERLOOKED.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1109 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1109 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE MAY INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. OTHERWISE, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF PERHAPS GREATER
CONCERN, IS THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO MORE FLOODING. CONSEQUENTLY, A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY MORNING. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE, SO PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG,
AND WEST, OF THE FLINT HILLS. RAINFALL AND ANY FLOODING REPORTS ARE
ALWAYS GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KLEINSASSER/LAWSON/ES/COX

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