Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

TONIGHT:
AM GETTING A JUMP ON THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION OF A BUSY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT 1800Z A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW, A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. EASTERN KANSAS IS FAIRLY WELL
CAPPED AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TURNPIKE. SPCS OUTLOOK HAS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MOST OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI, WITH A MODERATE
RISK THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS MAINLY
THIS EVENING ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES, HEAVY RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. AM LEAVING THE
FLOOD WATCH OUT AS IS FOR TONIGHT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF AN IOLA TO CANEY LINE BY MIDNIGHT, THEN TO THE
EASTERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. KEPT A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THAT.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG UP FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. BECAUSE OF THAT PUT SOME SMALL CHANGES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-SATURDAY:
PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE ON-GOING FORECAST ALONE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROF DEVELOPS
OUT WEST, WITH HINTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEASONABLY VERY WARM AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS PROGGED, WITH NIGHTTIME LOW-LEVEL JETS COMMON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  85  65  91 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      61  85  64  91 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          61  85  65  90 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  85  65  90 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  85  66  91 /  60  20  20  20
RUSSELL         58  84  63  92 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      58  84  63  92 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  84  63  90 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  90 /  40  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  86  66  89 /  80  40  20  20
CHANUTE         68  85  66  88 /  80  30  20  20
IOLA            68  85  66  88 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...CHAUTAUQUA...
COWLEY...ELK...GREENWOOD...HARVEY...LABETTE...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

ELDER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, AS A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OVER KANSAS FROM COLORADO.
A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL OR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THE VERY STRONG
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OUT OVER KANSAS, SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR EAST OF THE DRYLINE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT AREA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC/TES

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