Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 131610
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

KSC017-131620-
CHASE KS-
1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CHASE COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3810 9681 3810 9636 3850 9637 3850 9680

$$

/BOWMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD TSRA THAT PRODUCED 1-3 INCH RAINFALLS ACROSS MUCH OF SC KS
HAVE VACATED MOST OF THIS AREA, AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE VENTURING EAST
OVER SW KS INDUCES DRIER AIR TO PUSH EAST TOWARD SW CORRIDOR. THERE-
FORE REORIENTED THIS MORNINGS POP GRADIENT ACROSS SC KS TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS80 & ETA80 06Z INTERMEDIATE
RUNS CONT TO DEPICT REGION OF FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCI-
ATED WITH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TX
& OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT INTENSIFIES AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES SW FLANK OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. PER
THIS REASON HAVE RETAINED 50-70% POPS ACROSS SC KS WITH THE HIGHER
POPS ASSIGNED TO BUTLER & COWLEY COUNTIES WHERE ALIGNED WITH
WELL-DEFINED SFC-850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.
ES

---------------------------------------------------------------------

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST KS
INCLUDING BUTLER & COWLEY COUNTIES.

TODAY:
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALONG & SE OF COLD FRONT MOVG SLOWLY SE INTO MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT. AM ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING
BUTLER & COWLEY COUNTIES AS 1 & 3-HOURLY FFGS TO BE REACHED ACROSS
MOST OF THESE AREAS BY EVENING.

TONIGHT:
ALL SHORT-TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN PUSHING COLD FRONT SE OF
FORECAST AREA BY 7 PM AS MID-UPR LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MANITOBA INTO
SW ONTARIO. HOWEVER, BEHAVIOR OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS ANY DELAY WOULD IMPLY HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
OVER SE KS WELL INTO THE NIGHT & AS SUCH WOULD INCREASE FLASH-FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS SE KS.

SATURDAY:
POST-FRONTAL SHRA MAY LINGER INTO MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SE KS & HAVE
ASSIGNED 20-30% POPS TO AREAS ALONG & SE OF LINE FROM YATES CENTER
TO SEDAN (IN CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY).

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY:
DRY WEATHER SLATED ALL AREAS AS WEAK MID-UPR RIDGE DRIFTS EAST FROM
THE ROCKIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY:
GFS80 & ETA80 (MORE SO THE ETA80) DEPICT ONSET OF 850-MB MOIST ADVEC-
TION IN RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN PLAINS SFC TROF.
ETA80 PROGGING CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING BUT CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK UPPER DECK DYNAMICS THINK-
ING IS THAT THIS QPF IS OVERDONE. HAVE HOWEVER ASSIGNED 20-30% POPS
TO BOTH CENTRAL & SC KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO STRENGTHENING SFC TO
850-MB MOISTURE AXIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  50  72  44 /  80  60  10   0
HUTCHINSON      71  48  71  43 /  60  40   0   0
NEWTON          72  49  71  43 /  80  50   5   0
ELDORADO        73  50  71  43 / 100  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  51  73  45 /  90  70  20   0
RUSSELL         67  46  70  41 /  30  20   0   0
GREAT BEND      69  46  71  42 /  30  30   0   0
SALINA          69  47  70  42 /  50  30   0   0
MCPHERSON       70  48  70  42 /  60  40   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     77  53  71  44 / 100  90  30   0
CHANUTE         76  52  70  44 /  90  80  20   0
IOLA            76  51  69  44 /  90  80  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...
ELK...GREENWOOD...LABETTE...MARION...MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...SUMNER...
WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

/ES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
525 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS WELL AS THAT PART OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG, AND EAST, OF THE TURNPIKE. CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY RAINS, FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THESE AREAS. FOR
DETAILS, REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH THAT HAS IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING, SO BE LISTENING FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY THOSE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
OVER AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG, AND WEST, OF I-135. AT THIS TIME IT
DOESNT APPEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE, HOWEVER ONE SHOULD
LISTEN FOR SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY THOSE
ISSUED ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

KSZ069-070-093-094-098-130915-
BUTLER-CHAUTAUQUA-COWLEY-ELK-GREENWOOD-
318 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER...CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...ELK AND GREENWOOD
COUNTIES...

AT 313 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF
CASSODAY TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTA TO 5 MILES WEST OF DEXTER...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

/DARMOFAL