Tornado Warning 30, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1017 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

.UPDATE...
CURRENT 12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICALLY STACKED 528 DECAMETER
CLOSED LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN IOWA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KT AT 850 MB
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. POTENT 500 MB 90 KT
TO 100 KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. STRONG
HELICITY VALUES SEEN IN 12Z BNA AND BMX SOUNDING BETWEEN 400 AND 560
M2/S2...AS YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH THIS SETUP. THESE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST AND DRAGS
A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGHT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.

MODELS PROG 0-3 SRH VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 M2/S2 THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER DEFINITELY ON TAP TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE
OF TORNADOES LOOKS BETTER A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ALREADY VISIBLE THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SUN BEFORE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND BEST LIFT...MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH
MODELS PROGGING BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 100 J/KG CAPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. EXPECT PRIMARILY STRAIGHT WIND DAMAGE THOUGH
DUE TO MORE LIMITED INSTABLILITY.

CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 63 AND 68 DEGREES. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     AND MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE.

&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-291100-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
120 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THAT AREA. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED FOR ONGOING TORNADO WATCHES.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-282000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1106 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...

A COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
MORNING. AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WILL FEED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL
PASS THE SHOALS BY MIDDAY...HUNTSVILLE BY MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO
GEORGIA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
BE AT THEIR HIGHEST. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE
FOR LATER UPDATES.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1250 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

ALZ005-281915-
LIMESTONE-
1250 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LIMESTONE COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CST...

AT 1250 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF
RIPLEY TO NEAR LEGGTOWN...OR FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS TO 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  RIPLEY.
  ELKMONT.
  TANNER.
  ARDMORE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 6 PM CST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
113 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

ALZ016-281945-
CULLMAN-
113 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 109 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRANE HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CULLMAN.
  LOGAN.
  JONES CHAPEL.
  WEST POINT.
  BATTLEGROUND.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 6 PM CST.

CBD