Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO NR MEMPHIS AREA WITH LINE OF STORMS
OUT AHEAD OF IT.  NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH
THE LINE...WITH ONE GOLFBALL REPORT AS OF 20Z.  LINE IS MOVING EAST
AT APPROX 40-45 KTS AND VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 JOULES WITH LI/S BELOW -2C WILL KEEP
SVR THREAT GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  CURRENT SVR WATCH EXPIRES
AT 00Z THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION TO SVR WX...FLOODING HAS BECOME
BIG ISSUE WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
TRAINING CELLS.  TEMPS TODAY WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPTS INTO THE 60S.  QUESTION FOR THIS
UPDATE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THUR)...
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL APPROX 02Z PER INSTABILITY PARAMATERS FROM LATEST RUC.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THRU MAJORITY OF FA BY 03Z.  STORMS
CONTINUE DEVELOPING BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS LAUDERDALE COUNTY AND
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA.  RUC HAS
GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN AXIS AND INDICATES MAIN QPF BAND SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH OF THIS AREA BY 23Z.  POPS WILL BE DECIDED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AT ISSUANCE TIME...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF AREA TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE ALREADY OUT OF BANKS AND SEVERAL MORE FCST TO BE
IN FLOOD OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  SEE HUNFLWHUN/HUNFLSHUN
FOR MORE DETAILS.  PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
AROUND UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND DRIER
AIR REMAINING NORTH...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR BY
DAYBREAK AND WILL KEEP ZONES AS IS.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM UNCHANGED AS SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROF FCST
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.  MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL S/WAVE TO AREA BUT NO REAL THREAT FOR PCPN
DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  63  43  57 /  80  10   0   0
SHOALS        49  62  42  56 /  80  10   0   0
CULLMAN       52  63  44  58 /  70  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  49  62  41  55 /  80  10   0   0
FT PAYNE      52  63  42  56 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

PB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
355 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-220330-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
355 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. IN ADDITION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...SOME
ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
INFILTRATES THE REGION. A WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT LIKELY TODAY.  HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES.

RSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             TOWN CREEK              34.68N 87.41W
02/21/2005  1.25 INCH        LAWRENCE           AL   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL NEAR TOWN CREEK

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             DECATUR                 34.57N 86.99W
02/21/2005  0.75 INCH        MORGAN             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE HIGHWAY 31 TENNESSEE
            RIVER BRIDGE

0545 PM     HAIL             MOULTON                 34.48N 87.28W
02/21/2005  1.00 INCH        LAWRENCE           AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0545 PM     HAIL             3 NE MOULTON            34.51N 87.24W
02/21/2005  0.75 INCH        LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

DL

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