Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
720 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.UPDATE...
A NEW TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 871 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST AL
UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOW ALL OF NORTHERN AL AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN ARE UNDER TORNADO WATCHES.

A PREFRONTAL LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MUSCLE SHOALS AREA AT 7 PM...WITH A SOLID LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE NORTHWEST AL BORDER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN BOTH LINES HAVE ALREADY PROMPTED WARNINGS
FOR LAUDERDALE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST AL.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT NORTHEAST AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE ZONE FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO DROP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND
SHOW THE NEW TORNADO WATCH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME
EAST-CENTRAL MO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT HEADS ENE.  ASSOC COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO LITTLE ROCK
TO NR TYLER TX.  THREE-HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 8MB
BEHIND FRONT IS HELPING ACCELERATE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.  WINDS BEHIND
FRONT GUSTING WELL OVER 40KTS ACROSS CENTRAL OK.  SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PICKED UP AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH WINDS IN 20-30 MPH RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE TN VALLEY.  8H LLJ REMAINS AROUND 40KTS PER OKOLONA PROFILER
WITH STRONG VEERING W/ HEIGHT.  THIS KEEPS 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF
150 M2/S2.  INITIAL LINE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL OUT AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CURRENTLY CROSSING MS RIVER.  CELLS ARE TAKING
ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AS THEY APPROACH THE MEMPHIS AREA.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...
STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF FA THIS EVENING...
WITH BEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST THREAT FOR SVR WX ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST AL.  WHILE SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS IN LINE ACROSS
WESTERN TN ARE GENERALLY MOVING AT 65 MPH...OVERALL MOTION EAST IS
PRETTY SLOW AND WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN AFFECTING NW AL UNTIL AFTER
00Z.  GREATEST TORNADO THREAT HINGES ON DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

SQUALL LINE ALONG COLD FRONT WILL POSE ISOLD TORNADO AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT AS IT RAKES ACROSS FA THIS EVENING.  LINE
SHOULD AFFECT NW AL BTWN 00-03Z...HSV FROM 03-06Z AND NORTHEAST AL
FROM 06-09Z.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG CAA
MOVING INTO TN VALLEY.  NAM12 PROGS 8H TEMPS TO DIP BELOW 0C WED
AFTERNOON.  MOS GUIDANCE STAYS CONSISTENT WITH UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS
WED AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT FCST.

NEXT CONCERN DURING SHORT TERM PERIOD IS LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THUR
MORNING.  SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST AND OVER LOWER MS VALLEY.  ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST TO KEEP WINDS BTWN 5-10 MPH.
HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING TO DRAIN IN AND CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED...AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS RUNNING FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH RECENT TRENDS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS
INTO THE MID-20S AREA-WIDE.  FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED...HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND LET MIDNIGHT
SHIFT RE-ASSESS 00Z DATA.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
TROFFINESS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF NATION.  ELONGATED TROF
WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL ONLY RESULT IN PCLDY SKIES.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST AS SFC HIGH ELONGATES ACROSS
EASTERN SEABOARD.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ALONG W/
SEVERAL UPPER WAVES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SYSTEMS TO WORK WITH...THUS WILL ONLY WORD AS
PCLDY FOR WEEKEND.  TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU
THE PERIOD.

PB
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SCHAUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-160330-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
644 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL BUT NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY OF
THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND DRY
SURFACES.  WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING...AND SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PERSONS WITH
SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD COVER THEM OR BRING THEM INDOORS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS IN
PLACE.

SCHAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
729 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ALZ002-160215-
COLBERT-
729 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 728 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
CHEROKEE TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MYNOT...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MT HESTER.
  CHEROKEE.
  RED ROCK.
  TUSCUMBIA.
  MUSCLE SHOALS.
  LEIGHTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
802 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ALZ001-160230-
LAUDERDALE-
802 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CST...

AT 800 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KILLEN...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  KILLEN.
  KINGTOWN.
  WHITEHEAD.
  ANDERSON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
809 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERLOO                34.92N 88.06W
11/15/2005                   LAUDERDALE         AL   UTILITY COMPANY

            FLORENCE ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTED POWERLINES DOWN IN THE
            WATERLOO COMMUNITY.

0739 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 W TUSCUMBIA          34.73N 87.88W
11/15/2005                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON HOUSE ON GEORGETOWN LANE APPROXIMATELY
            10 MILES WEST OF TUSCUMBIA.

0800 PM     HAIL             RIPLEY                  34.76N 87.12W
11/15/2005  0.50 INCH        LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE RIPLEY COMMUNITY.

&&

KWEBER

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