Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND NORTHERN AL...MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NE AL AND CENTRAL TN. AS THIS
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...AND A WATCH
ISSUED PER SPC.

AS FOR TONIGHT AND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE
WOBBLES ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND IT KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH PWS STILL HIGH AND WEAK STORM
MOTION...HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. WITH A WETTER
MID LEVEL...DOWNBURSTS WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A THREAT AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. AS THE RIDGE MAKES A SOLID EFFORT TO BUILD FURTHER
TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS TEND TO WASH OUT
ANY DISTURBANCES BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
POPS DOWN AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO HIGH 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE CONTINUITY OF
SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE. TAKING CLIMO INTO ACCOUNT...FRONT PROBABLY WILL SLOW
DOWN...IF NOT STALL OUT...WILL WAIT FOR A FEW MORE FORECAST RUNS
TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. WITH THAT SAID...DID
NOT LOWER THE TEMPS AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE DID...KEPT MAXES IN THE
HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALSO...TWEAKED MINS
DOWN TO REFLECT A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS
ASSUMING WE WILL BE IN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FRONT STALLING NEAR OUR
REGION...KEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF POPS IN FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  92  73  94 /  30  40  20  20
SHOALS        72  92  72  94 /  30  40  20  20
CULLMAN       72  92  72  95 /  30  40  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  71  91  71  92 /  30  40  20  20
FORT PAYNE    70  90  71  93 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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