Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST U/A AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AL. AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN AL...NORTHWEST GA
AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE ADDED LIFT/CONVERGENCE
AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ALLOWING A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS
TO DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME...AS ALREADY WITNESSED BY THE MID-
MORNING MICROBURST THAT BROUGHT TREES/POWERLINES DOWN IN JACKSON
COUNTY AROUND THE HOLLYWOOD AREA. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR REMAINING
HIGHLY CLOUD DEPENDENT...WITH LOWER 90S ALREADY SHOWN OVER THE
MTLY SUNNY AREAS WEST OF I-65...AND SOME LOWER 70S STILL IN
NORTHEAST AL WHERE THE BKN/OVC CONDITIONS PERSIST.

WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER INTO EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FOLLOWING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SOUNDING DATA REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SLOW MOVING STORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LAST MINUTE
RADAR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THOSE MORE
FOG PRONE AREAS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF THIS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO MORE OF A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW END SCATTERED
CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF HSV. THE SHEAR AXIS BECOMES LESS
APPARENT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL LINGER IN SOME
WEAKENED FORM. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY
BY DAYTIME HEATING...SO POPS IN THE 20/30% RANGE REMAIN
APPROPRIATE. MODELS SUGGESTING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS AND
MEAN THICKNESS VALUES...SO COULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UP A
DEGREE OR TWO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65
WHERE A FEW MID 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A CONTINUATION OF THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE WEAK SHEAR
AXIS BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUGUST...WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE   72 92 72 92 / 20 30 20 30
SHOALS       71 94 72 94 / 20 30 20 30
CULLMAN      70 92 72 93 / 20 30 20 30
FAYETTEVILLE 70 92 71 91 / 20 30 20 30
FORT PAYNE   70 90 69 91 / 20 40 20 30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

10/MR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
110 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-140200-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
110 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND PENNY SIZED HAIL IS
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF MIDDLE AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS WELL.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS WILL
HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND IS COMBINING WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

KULA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1206 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW HOLLYWOOD          34.75N 86.00W
08/13/2005                   JACKSON            AL   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN OR SNAPPED ALONG HIGHWAY 33. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     LIGHTNING        SCOTTSBORO              34.67N 86.03W
08/13/2005                   JACKSON            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** WOMAM STRUCK BY LIGHTNING WHILE ON THE
            TELEPHONE AT RESIDENCE. WOMAN WAS TAKEN TO HOSPITAL FOR
            TREATMENT.

&&

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
141 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ALZ001-005-006-TNZ096-131945-
LAUDERDALE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-
141 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE AND NORTHERN
LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND LINCOLN
COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

AT 135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 4 PM...INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LEXINGTON.
  ANDERSON.
  MCBURG.
  DELINA.
  DELLROSE.
  PETERSBURG.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ALZ016-132000-
CULLMAN-
215 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ADDISON...OR 15 MILES WEST
OF CULLMAN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LEWIS SMITH LAKE
  JONES CHAPEL.
  CRANE HILL.
  LOGAN.
  WILBURN.
  BALDWIN.
  GOOD HOPE.

IF ON OR NEAR LEWIS SMITH LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ALZ007-132100-
MORGAN-
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRINITY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR...
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SOUTHWEST DECATUR.
  TRINITY.
  BASHAM.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.