Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE SW. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND MORE NUMEROUS EAST OF HERE. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ABOUT
AN INCH OF PRECIP WATER PER AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE STORMS EAST OF HERE HAVE YIELDED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
SE TENNESSEE. 2 PM TEMPS ACROSS THE VALLEY WERE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
WITH 60-65 DEWPOINTS NOTED TOO.

FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER SW OVER-
NIGHT...AS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND HEAD ENE MORE AS A TROUGH. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE SHOWERS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR BY TUE MORNING.

UPPER RIDGING OUT WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE MID 590S DECAMETER RANGE
AND HELP PRODUCE WARM TO HOT TEMPS...AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THE VALLEY. HAVE NOTED FOR THURS AFTERNOON THE +60 HOUR 12Z NAM/GFS
BUILD OUR 500 MB HEIGHTS TO THE 588 DM LEVEL.

FOR THE PERIOD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS AREA. UPPER RIDGING
FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EAST...CONTINUING WARM TO HOT
TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.

SUMMER 2005 OFFICIALLY BEGINS AT 646Z OR 146 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    62  89  66  91 /  20  10   0  10
SHOALS        63  89  67  91 /  20  10   0  10
CULLMAN       63  88  67  91 /  20  10   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  88  66  91 /  20  10   0  10
FT PAYNE      61  85  62  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-211000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
1249 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...(THROUGH TONIGHT)...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

ALZ010-202130-
DE KALB-
404 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SUMMERVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF FORT PAYNE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ADAMSBURG.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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