Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WV LOOP
INDICATING CENTER OF UPPER CUTOFF LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWFA.
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
TO OUR AREA TODAY WHICH HAS ALSO KEPT TEMPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.
SKIES DID CLEAR OUT SOME IN KERN COUNTY WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH
SURFACE HEATING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH END
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. NORTH OF KERN COUNTY THE PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR AN
AUGUST PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
SIERRA FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING SINCE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS HAVING DIFFICULTY REACHING THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH KHNX
88D IS SHOWING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD. THE 12Z NAM-12 IS ANTICIPATING CAPES OF 1200 TO 1600 J/KG
AND LI/S BETWEEN -3 TO -6 EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS WHERE SKIES CLEARED OUT FOR SOME TIME TODAY. THUS...THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
AND AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW INDICATING THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS (THE CONSENSUAL PREFERRED MODEL TODAY AS
PER HPC DISCUSSION) LEAVES SOME ENERGY FROM THIS UPPER LOW BEHIND
OVER SOCAL THROUGH MID WEEK...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL DEPART
THE AREA WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND KERN DESERTS ON
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID/UPPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY THEN DRY ALL AREA THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SETS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES RISE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.

.LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REMNANTS OF UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NE THURS NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS RECOVERING THRU THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE CWA. AS UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS...
850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S SUPPORTING A SLOW
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE CWA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WITH CONTD DRYING OF MID-LEVELS THURS NGT AND FRI...
CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WILL MAINTAIN ZERO POPS THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BREAKS IN OVERCAST WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCTD DEEPER
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING...MAINLY SOUTH OF KVIS
WHERE ISOLD CEILINGS OF 4-5K FEET AND -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU
03Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
TUESDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR DETAILS.

&&

.HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

DS/JSN

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