Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
935 AM PST MON FEB 21 2005

.UPDATE...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N/124W. THE FIRST RAIN BAND
IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS. THIS BAND HAS PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
ONE AUTOMATED GAUGE AT FRAZIER PARK RECORDING 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 1713Z. MUD/DEBRIS SLIDES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE...AND WILL LEAVE THE FLOODS WARNING
FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
NOON.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WS-ETA HAS CAPES OF 9800+ JOULES/KG OVER MERCED AND
MADERA COUNTIES AT 00Z TUESDAY...WITH LIFTED INDEXES OF -45 TO -5
AND 500-MB TEMPERATURES OF -24 C. IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR GOOD SOLAR
HEATING...COULD SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW POSSIBLY
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...UPPER LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL CONT TO SPIN CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INLAND
TODAY. MAIN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND HIGHEST RAIN RATES SHOULD BE
E OF CENTRAL CA INTERIOR NEAR SUNRISE...HOWEVER VORT LOBES SPINNING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN THRU THE
DAY. FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE KERN CO MTNS AND DESERTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER
AND NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL AND MOVE
TO THE SOCAL COAST TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW THEN BECOMES Q-STNRY FOR
TUES AND WED AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US. MOISTURE
AND SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUES
AND WED...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IN THICKNESS VALUES...SO SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN BETWEEN
5-6K IN THE SHORT TERM. LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMP CHANGES EITHER.

.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING...MODELS STILL CONTINUE INDICATING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
EDGING A REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. YET...WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL END
THE LINGERING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...TIMING NOW SEEMS A BIT SLOWER WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
STILL A THREAT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL EXTENDED THE
POSSIBLE PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DISTRICT...YET MODELS NO LONGER ATTEMPT TO ROTATE ANY
VORT MAX/S AROUND THE FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRYING
TREND AS BEFORE. RIDGE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE
WEST COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS
ARE STILL ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. WILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE ONSHORE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...BASED ON
GUIDANCE VALUES...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AND REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ABOVE 6000
      FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY UNTIL
      MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE KERN COUNTY
      MOUNTAINS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT.

&&

SANGER/BINGHAM/MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /ALL LOWER CASE/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

CAZ098-099-221300-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
1230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT MESSAGE
/WGUS86 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE /WGUS66 KHNX/ FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT 6
AM TUESDAY OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-221300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095-221300-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
TUESDAY BELOW 6000 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT
MESSAGE /WGUS86 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT BELOW
6000 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE /WGUS66
KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT 6
AM TUESDAY OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ089>094-221300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
1230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

PJ