Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
930 AM PDT THU APR 28 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND SIERRA AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
LIFTS NORTH. WEATHER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGED FROM WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEY WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES AND WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. WEATHER
SPOTTERS REPORT SNOW LEVEL AROUND 6000 FEET WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DRIER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY AREA. VANDENBERG
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSING THE REGION.
MODELS INDICATE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER DYNAMICS. THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
FILTERING IN SOME CLEARING...DIURNAL HEATING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH...WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CAPES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS A 10MB
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTH CALIFORNIA ALIGNING WITH A 120KT
WEST UPPER JET. DO NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR A MORNING ZONE UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STG 130 KT JET CONTS TO UNDERCUT UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 36N/125W AT 10Z. SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CWA WITH BACK EDGE OF STEADIER PRECIP NOW LIFTING NE INTO WESTERN
ZONES. VERY SIMILAR PROJECTIONS ON MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING JET
SHIFTING INLAND NEAR KERN COUNTY AROUND 18Z ...CONTG EAST WITH CWA
THEN FALLING UNDER RFQ BY 00Z. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR THRU
APPROX 15Z...WITH ORGANIZED UVM DECREASING THRU THE AFTN. LESS
INSTABILITY IS PROJECTED ON PROGS FOR THIS AFTN THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLDTHUNDER WITH GIVEN
COLD POOL ALOFT AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PROXIMITY OF
UPPER JET WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS AS LAPSE RATES AIDE IN MIXING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE LOWER ELEVS...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
WIND ADVISORIES TODAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A MORE STABLE PATTERN THRUT THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES SATURDAY. WITH PROGS SHOWING WAVE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...ATTM WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND AND CONFIED
TO THE HIER ELEVS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN LEAVING WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER
THE REGION MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ANYTHING TO INDICATE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SEEN FOR TUESDAY...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
SIERRA. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN DO
NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SIERRA. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

MV/JSN/BEAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
605 AM PDT THU APR 28 2005

CAZ089>094-291200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
605 AM PDT THU APR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095>099-291200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
605 AM PDT THU APR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

TLM/JSN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
206 PM PDT THU APR 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     HAIL             2 NW HANFORD            36.35N 119.67W
04/28/2005  0.75 INCH        KINGS              CA   NWS EMPLOYEE

0153 PM     HAIL             LEMOORE                 36.30N 119.79W
04/28/2005  0.75 INCH        KINGS              CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SANGER