Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
220 PM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE
CWFA. BASED ON WORKSTATION-ETA CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS...WILL EXPECT
THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTH.
MODELS ANALYSIS PLACES CAPE VALUES OF +800 J/KG NEAR BAKERSFIELD
WITH +500 J/KG DOWN TO THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY LINE AND UP TO
FRESNO. DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY LOW CAPE VALUES ALONG WITH MINIMAL
SHEAR...WILL KEEP WORDING AS ISOLATED WHICH WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE. FURTHERMORE...CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE NORTH END OF THE DISTRICT MAY HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH END IS ALSO SUPPORT
BY SPC WHICH KEEPS THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY IN THE SAME
AREA. YET...WILL KEEP WORDING OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE VALLEY AND FOOTHILL...AS WELL AS THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

RUC40 AND IR SATELLITE PIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OFF THE LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. A SECONDARY LOW IS STARTING TO DROP BEHIND THE MAIN LOW
AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR MONTEREY. INTERACTION OF THE TWO LOWS WILL
KEEP THE ENTIRE DISTRICT UNSETTLED THROUGH OUT THE NIGHT.
DEFORMATION ZONE HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTHEAST MORE OVER KERN COUNTY.
WILL THEREFORE EXPECT BEST DYNAMICS FROM DIFLUENCE FLOW TO BE OVER
KERN BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VALLEY TO DIMINISH NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR THE SNOW ADVISORY OVER THE KERN
MOUNTAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ADVISORY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS TO WARM FOR MODERATE SNOW FALL.

LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AT 500MB NOW ATTEMPTS TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
ALLOWING THE TERMINATION OF PRECIP OVER THE CWFA. MODELS SHOW THE
ENTIRE DISTRICT DRYING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL GO DRY STARTING DAY 3
AND MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST INTO THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM AND DRY
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ON DAYS 4-7 AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ONSHORE FROM THE EPAC...WITH AXIS SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRI. OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD COMBINE WITH
INCREASED UPPER AIR TEMPS TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S THRU THE PERIOD...WITH 50S ACROSS THE HIGH SIERRA. HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND SURFACE
GRADS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SCATTERED CI OVER THE CWA AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERRIDES RIDGE. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SJ
VALLEY...HOWEVER SURFACE BASED INVERSION SHOULD BE THIN RESULTING
IN FOG RAPID BURNOFF BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MOLINA/JSN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /ALL LOWER CASE/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

CAZ089>094-051300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-051300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095-051300-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX/
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ098-099-051300-
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
322 PM PST FRI MAR 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             RIDGECREST              35.63N 117.66W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        KERN               CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0243 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             35.36N 119.00W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        KERN               CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

0245 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             35.36N 119.00W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        KERN               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0258 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             35.36N 119.00W
03/04/2005  1.00 INCH        KERN               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED ON CALIFORNIA AVE IN BAKERSFIELD.

0305 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             35.36N 119.00W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        KERN               CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ON COFFEE RD. HEAVY RAIN ALSO REPORTED WITH 6
            INCHES OF WATER ON ROADWAY.

0311 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             35.36N 119.00W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        KERN               CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS AREAS OF STREET FLOODING ALSO REPORTED IN
            BAKERSFIELD.

&&

CB