Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
200 PM PST THU FEB 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...KHNX 88D
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS JUST BEGAN OVER THE SIERRAS...
TEHACHAPIS AND COASTAL RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DRY OUT THE ENTIRE CWFA
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. WV LOOP INDICATING
THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ IS NOW MOVING NORTH AS PROGGED TO BY THE
12Z NAM/GFS. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED BY THE MODELS...AND AS A RESULT LESS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
IS AFFECTING OUR CWFA. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE STABLE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. 12Z NAM/GFS
CONTINUING TO INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CA COAST
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE MORE OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...BUT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PAC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RH PROGS
INDICATING SOME MID/UPPER MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL CA...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW BECOMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CENTRAL CA TO SPREAD SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND UVM INTO OUR AREA. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.  DS

.LONG TERM...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DECENT SHOT AT
PRECIP FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR NORCAL/OREGON. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AFTER THAT POINT, WITH THE CANADIAN AND
12Z GFS TAKING THE TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST, WHILE THE EARLIER 00Z GFS
HOLDS IT BACK ACROSS THE STATE AND EVENTUALLY SENDS IT DOWN THE
COAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY ALL OVER THE PLACE BY
MID WEEK, UNDERSCORING THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE. WITH SUCH A DEEP
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, THE FEELING AT THIS POINT IS THE
SLOWER PROGRESSION IS PROBABLY MOST REASONABLE, AND WILL RETAIN SOME
MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL
VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.  BURGER

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /ALL LOWER CASE/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PST THU FEB 24 2005

CAZ089>099-251300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
500 AM PST THU FEB 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

JWM