Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
325 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...SHORT TERM
CONCERN REMAINS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERTS. THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF PW AXIS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...WITH
MSAS THETA-E VALUES APPROACHING 350K AND SFC MSTR CONVERGENCE AXIS
EXTENDING N-S THRU MTN AND DESERT ZONES. STRONG TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN NEARLY STATIONARY
MOVEMENT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 900 PM
FOR TULARE MTN AND KERN MTN/DESERT ZONES.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM PACKAGE APPEARS ON TRACK AS A DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CREST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASING CONVECTIVE THREAT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN UPPER AIR TEMPS...DAYTIME HIGH SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRUT THE DISTRICT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THRU WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY AS THEY ALL PROG A WEAK
TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN WILL INTRODUCE SOME COOLING TO THE DISTRICT FROM BOTH
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE CONTRIBUTIONS. MODELS SHOW ABOUT 1-2 DEG-C OF
COOLING OVER THE CWFA BY THURSDAY...FROM THAT OF WEDNESDAY...AT THE
850MB LEVEL. ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MARINE PUSH...TEMPERATURES IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY COULD DROP DOWN BACK INTO THE 90S. MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW THIS TREND OF GOING COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WHILE STILL GOING WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER NUMBERS THEN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE. TROF PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF CALIFORNIA TO MINIMIZE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FOR A DAY OR TWO. AS PER HPC...COULD SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF MONSOONAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS...SO WILL TEMPERATURES AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN HOT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. REFER TO TAFS AT KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL FOR DETAILS.

&&

.HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 900 PM
       PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS/DESERTS
       AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

JSN/DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
600 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2005

CAZ095-097>099-251300-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
600 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS AND FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND FOR THE TULARE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM
NOON PDT UNTIL 900 PM PDT TODAY. SEE WGUS66 KHNX - SFOFFAHNX FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ089>094-096-251300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
600 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KINGS CANYON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DS

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