Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...
JUST ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL MIDNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
ELEMENT. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE SOME FLARES ALONG THE DRY
LINE THIS AFTN - AROUND AND SOUTH OF DFW ATTM. WILL NOT BE MAKING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING ZONES FOR THIS NEXT PACKAGE. FROM
THE LOOKS OF THINGS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE OVER
OUR NRN ZONES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE GRIDDED HIGHEST
POPS THERE (40%) THEN TAPERING THEM OFF SWD (20% AT THE COAST). FOG
(THE DENSE SEA VARIETY) MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS
FOR THE SHORT-TERM THIS EVENING. AS FOR THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM...WE
RE STILL LOOKING AT SOME VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRONOUNCED CON-
VERGENCE ALONG WITH THE WEAKER CAP IN THESE LOCATIONS. WHILE MOIST-
URE MAY BE JUST A SHADE DEEPER ALONG THE COAST...UPPR LEVEL SUPPORT
NOT AS PRONOUNCED. AFTER TONIGHT...WE SHOULD BE SEEING RAPID CLEAR-
ING AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH AS THE COOL MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR-
MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. STRONG NLY WINDS TOMORROW (DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT) WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN. A NICE WARM
TREND THEN ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
SMALL BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER TROF NEXT TUESDAY NOT EXPECTED TO PRO-
DUCE MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN AS A FAST-MOVING S/WV CROSSES AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND UPPER TROF BY WEDNESDAY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWING A TROF IN PLACE FROM MINN TO THE CALI
BAJA. WILL KEEP WITH LOWISH POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)    52  67  42  73  44 /  40  0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)            55  68  44  73  45 /  30  0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)          61  66  52  69  54 /  20  0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 06Z FOR BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     AND WALKER COUNTIES.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-011300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
328 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY IN THE AREA NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BRENHAM TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL WITH A LESSER THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

TXZ163-164-176>179-195-196-198-010600-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-
515 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE
INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
MADISON...GRIMES...WALKER...SAN JACINTO...POLK...HOUSTON AND
TRINITY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO GENERATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT.THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

PERSONS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.