Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS LOCATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. WEAK CU FIELD TO THE WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY
(MOVING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS) IS IN A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MAY
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BECOME SEVERE (AGREE WITH SPCS 20Z SWODY1
REASONING). WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AREAWIDE WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE. IF NOTHING DEVELOPS
BEFORE 00Z...WELL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO UPDATE OUR FORECAST...
REMOVE THE MENTION OF SEVERE AND ELIMINATE THE RAIN CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN END OUR
RAIN CHANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW
OFF THE GULF WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS ON THE LOW SIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY THEN
TRY TO SKIRT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY WILL
BE FIGHTING WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE AREA. PLAN ON GOING WITH
20% TO 30% POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE HIGHER CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST
TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WELL HAVE 70S FOR HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
THAT DAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS WILL THEN GO UP AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. 42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  78  51  78  53 /  30   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  78  53  78  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  72  59  72  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM WATERS.
      SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION 00-20 NM WATERS.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
716 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
716 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THIS MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POTENTIAL THREATS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.