Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN A PLAYER IN SE TX WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER...THE TUTT WILL BE DRIFTING WEST OVER
SE TX LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS...DRIER AIR THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TO BRING A BRIEF DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

LIKED A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND THE ETA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING SUNDAY. THE WEAK
PATTERN NEAR THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A SEABREEZE TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF TOMORROW AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER FELT THAT THE
CHANCES WERE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE POPS GET A BIT DICIER ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT DRIFING OVERHEAD. DECIDED
TO ADD ISOLATED POPS TO MOST OR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN PUSH THOSE SLOWLY WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS THAT WOULD BE AFFECTED BY A SEABREEZE.
ADDED POPS MONDAY...THEN STAYED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

FOR TEMPERATURES DECIDED TO GO CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
MET AND FWC GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KEPT THINGS PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY.

PL-40

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WIND HOLDING ON AGAINST SEABREEZE EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A LATE SHIFT IN THE WINDS BEFORE DROPPING L/V OVERNIGHT. MORE OR LESS
THE SAME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS AND
NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT EITHER INLAND OR OVER THE GULF. BY
MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF
INCREASING THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH WEST GULF
AND SENDING REMNANT FRONT BACK INLAND WELL NORTH OF THE COAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED 20-01Z POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE BIG AIRPORTS. BETTER CHANCE AT CLL WITH CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF AREA AT 230 PM. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY
COULD REACH CLL 2O-22Z. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR 06-13Z TIME FRAME WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO EXPECTED SATURDAY.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  98  72  98  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  97  71  97  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  92  80  92  80 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

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