Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WWUS54 KHGX 241145
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
543 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

TXC239-241200-
/O.EXP.KHGX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-050224T1145Z/
JACKSON-
545 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY FROM MORALES TO 
SOUTH OF EDNA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH 
AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORMS WILL 
BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2907 9711 2895 9696 2895 9647 2922 9669

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE TO CANCEL THE NPW DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS ENABLED FOG TO THIN OUT ACROSS
THE COASTAL ZONES. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER OUR
SW ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY.

COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES FROM SAN MARCOS TO JUST
NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION TO NEAR JASPER. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS
ARE AT THEIR HIGHEST NOW AND WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. A LARGE
COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THESE CLOSELY AS THEY COULD IMPACT OUR SW ZONES FROM 11Z-15Z
WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL JET...PWS OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES...AND INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (AIDED BY PROXIMITY TO RRQ OF UPPER JET) WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HPC HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE
TX IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ALL ZONES TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION IN
HWOHGX THAT HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF. WILL
CALL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL WAS VERY SPOTTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF AN FFA.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH SE TX STILL IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
CROSSING TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOW FORECAST
TO TAKE PLACE FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH PWS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. ANOTHER
FROPA IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHICH WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR A DAY OR TWO.
MODELS DISAGREE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD SO WENT WITH THE STATUS QUO.

35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  45  59  42  60 /  80  30  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  47  60  44  60 / 100  50  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  51  59  50  60 / 100  60  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
320 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

...SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAVE PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LIBERTY TO HOUSTON TO WHARTON LINE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL.

.TONIGHT...
A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE 1/2 INCH WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

GMZ330-350-TXZ210-226-235>237-241600-
BRAZORIA-COLORADO-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
500 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST.

THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE BRAZORIA...COLORADO...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON. THE WATCH ALSO INCLUDES MATAGORDA
BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
VICTORIA AT 500 AM. THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

PERSONS IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER
WEATHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.