Wind Advisory 6, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 200855
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1055 PM HST MON DEC 19 2005

...WINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE HIGH VOLCANOES ON THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII...

.A TROUGH ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN ON THE
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIZ028-201000-
/X.CAN.PHFO.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051220T1000Z/
/X.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0006.051220T1000Z-051220T1800Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
1055 PM HST MON DEC 19 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

INSTRUMENTS ON MAUNA KEA SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW THE
WARNING AND ADVISORY LEVEL.

$$

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON DEC 19 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CHAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY KEEPING THE WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SIDE WITH LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ACROSS THE STATE. A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY KONA
WINDS BACK THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ALOHA STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY. A
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WASHOUT OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAD A FAIR HANDLE ON
THE LAST SYSTEM THAT WENT THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY...AND PRETTY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS BEING PLACED ON THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGHLIGHTS FROM AROUND THE AREA
WILL BE THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION AT ALL GAUGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE REGION THIS WEEK ARE
VERY DRY WITH INVERSION LAYERS ONLY 3000 TO 4000 FEET DEEP. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED DRYING OF THE LOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND BELOW NORMAL NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DRY ONE FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH BY A 200 KNOT 250 MB JET. THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS RESIDE UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WHICH
SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING DOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FOR GUSTY
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE GUSTS ONLY ON THE SUMMITS OF MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND...HOWEVER STAY TUNED THIS EVENT HAS A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...MORE OF THE SAME WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. LONG TERM GFS KEEPS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CHAIN INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WILL SEE HOW THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT BEFORE PLACE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS HAVE BEEN BUILDING FURTHER AT OUR
NORTHWEST BUOY AS A VERY LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THE
STORM THAT MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUS HAVE INCREASED THE SIZE OF THE EXPECTED SURF
AND ALSO THE AREA UNDER A HIGH SURF WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURF IS EXPECTED SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW
WARNING LEVELS FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THEN THE SURF IS EXPECT TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY AGAIN REACH WARNING LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. THURSDAY NIGHT/S INTO FRIDAY/S FRONTAL
PASSAGE COULD BRING EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO THE STATE WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOWER THAN AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRIED FUEL
CONDITIONS.

A /NO BURN PERIOD/ DECLARATION FROM THE HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY FOR POOR
AIR QUALITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE STATE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE
HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE END OF DECEMBER CAN BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH SOME YEARS VERY WET
AND OTHERS...LIKE THIS YEAR...VERY DRY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE INTERIOR OF OAHU AND MAUI. RECORDS LOWS ARE
PRETTY LOW AT HONOLULU AND KAHULUI. FOR TOMORROW DECEMBER 20TH THE
RECORD LOW AT HONOLULU IS 54 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1962...AND 55
DEGREES AT KAHULUI SET IN 1950. ON THE 21ST HONOLULU 58 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1962 AND KAHULUI 53 SET BACK IN 1969. ON THE 22ND HONOLULU
57 DEGREES IN 1983 AND KAHULUI 53 ALSO SET IN 1983. FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR HONOLULU AND KAHULUI WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S STAYING ABOVE THE RECORD VALUES...HOWEVER STILL CHILLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST
HAWAIIAN WATERS EXPOSED TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL.
&&

PROTON