High Wind Watch 1, NWS Honolulu, HI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT DEC 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
KONA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER KAUAI LATE SUNDAY BRINGING A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE
FRONT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSSOAHU AND MAUI COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHATEVER REMAINS WILL OF THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
NEXT WEEK FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH
WSW OR KONA FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS AND TO OUR NORTH. THE VERY ACTIVE
AND STORMY PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH THAN
NORMAL...OVER OR CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM ONE OF THESE  LOWS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...THIS FRONT WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OUR
FORECAST TIMING...WITH THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI LATE ON SUNDAY...
OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND STALLING NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP
GRIDS...WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH MOS
GUIDANCE.

HAVE MAINTAINED THE WIND SPEED GRIDS...ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. THESE
LOOK GOOD...INCLUDING THE GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH IN LOCALIZED
AREAS OF NORMALLY WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND OAHU.

A GAP IN THE PARADE OF LOWS TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH PROVIDING RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ISLAND VICINITY AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL EPISODE LATE IN THE WEEK...ABOUT FRIDAY. OTHER THAN SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WE WILL LIKELY SETTLE BACK
INTO A GENERALLY DRY OR WEAK CONVECTIVE PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE OTHER BIG STORY IS THE NORTHWEST SWELL. THE LATEST BUMP IS ON
THE DECLINE...BUT ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
AND LIKELY PEAK ON MONDAY. BECAUSE OF PROBLEMS WITH HANDLING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE WAVEWATCH III
HAS BEEN WAFFLING A LOT ON THE SIZE AND PERIOD OF THE ENERGY
REACHING THE ISLANDS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SURF WILL REACH WARNING
LEVELS FOR SOME NORTH AND WEST FACING LOCATIONS STARTING MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG KONA WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND
INCREASING SEAS...NECESSITATES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM HST MONDAY FOR MOST HAWAIIAN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WATERS EXPOSED TO LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELLS...BUT ALSO INCLUDING WATERS AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU WHERE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

FARRELL