Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Honolulu, HI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
610 PM HST WED NOV 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WIND PATTERN. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHTS. A FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE HAS
THROWN A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST OAHU THIS
EVENING. TYPICAL SEA BREEZE INTERIOR SHOWERS IN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE KOOLAUS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE GRAVITY WAVE
AT THE MOMENT. BELIEVE THE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE GRAVITY
WAVE EXITS THE AREA.  THE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO TAKE THE INCREASED SHOWERS
INTO AFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL LEAVE INTACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR A TRANSITION
TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE STATE TODAY SAVE FOR A FUNNEL
CLOUD SPOTTED BY A PILOT OVER THE KAIWI CHANNEL. OTHER THAN
THAT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...EXPECT A TRANSITION THIS EVENING TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE.

WITH RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY OR SO...EXPECT
BASIC REPEAT OF TODAYS WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK FRONT NEARLY 550 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL APPROACH...BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
INSTEAD...THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH OUT AND PASS BY NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AS IT DISSIPATES. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE FRONT NEARS...BUT LITTLE TO
NONE OF THE RAIN PRODUCING STUFF.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONGER FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS STARTING LATE SUNDAY. THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
APPEARS ADEQUATE...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL A BIT FIDGETY ON THE
TIMING DETAILS. GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE IN A SIMILAR
SCENARIO...WILL CAUTIOUSLY KEEP TOES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING
FOR INCREASED SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT TO JUMP IN ALL THE WAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

TANABE