Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 311723
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
725 AM HST MON OCT 31 2005

HIC003-311735-
HONOLULU-
725 AM HST MON OCT 31 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY 
IS CANCELLED...

AT 700 AM HST...RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN OVER WINDWARD COAST 
OF OAHU BETWEEN KAAAWA AND KAHUKU HAS BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFFECTED AREA...BUT ARE NOT CONSIDERED A 
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS MAY 
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

WHILE RAINFALL HAS SUBSIDED FOR NOW...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE 
POSSIBLE LATER.

LAT...LON 2166 15798 2152 15792 2146 15787 2153 15782
      2161 15785 2170 15794

$$

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON OCT 31 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT BACK TO TRADE
WINDS AND INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT. THEN WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO STRONG TRADES FOR MID WEEK. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEK POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW IS CUTTING OFF EAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AS THE
CUT OFF LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. OVERNIGHT A PERSISTENT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FELL OVER WINDWARD OAHU. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
AIDED IN BENDING THE MOLOKAI PLUME OVER THIS AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DEEP MOIST LAYER AT BOTH LIHUE AND HILO UPPER AIR SITES. THIS
IS AIDING THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RETURN TO A TRADE WIND
DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT THE GFS INDICATES A TRADE WIND SURGE UP TO STRONG LEVELS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PEAK OF THE STRONG TRADES LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MODERATE LEVELS INTO
THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS THE TRADES GET PRETTY
DEEP...ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS75 HAS THE TRADE WIND EASTERLIES UP TO
600 MB. GFS KEEPS THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT LIHUE AND HILO DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SURGE IN THE TRADES SHOULD KEEP THEM PRETTY WET DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND SLOWLY WORKING BACK TO NORMAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED ALL FIELDS IN THE FORECAST
DATA BASE THIS MORNING FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.

IN THE LONG RANGE...GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS WANTS TO
BRING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS FROM THE
WEST...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS WANTS TO SLIDE ONE IN FROM THE EAST. WILL
SIDE WITH MODERATE TRADE CLIMO FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE SOLUTION.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PROTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
246 AM HST MON OCT 31 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S PUNALUU             21.56N 157.90W
10/31/2005                   HONOLULU           HI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KAHUKU POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER
            FLOWING ACROSS A 30 FOOT WIDE SECTION OF KAMEHAMEHA
            HIGHWAY.

&&

RBALLARD