Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Honolulu, HI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY
HEAVY SHOWERS WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SURF ALONG SOUTHERN SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
HEAVY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST HEAVY
SHOWERS WERE LIMITED TO THE BIG ISLAND AND WINDWARD EAST MAUI...
ALTHOUGH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE UPPER SLOPES OF LEEWARD BIG ISLAND. THE THUNDERSTORMS AREA
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HEAVY SHOWERS MAY
BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT OVER KAUAI...AND POSSIBLY OAHU...AS A
SHORT WAVE ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...BRIEFLY SHOWERS WILL
MAINLY MOVE ALONG A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW AND WILL AT
TIMES SPREAD LEEWARD THROUGH TOMORROW.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALLOWING TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO REMAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY OVER MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STABILITY AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS NORTH OF THE STATE. WINDS MAY
SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WE ARE ALSO WATCHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN E...LOCATED ABOUT 1900
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND REACHING A POINT 600 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO BY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED IN TRACK FORECASTING AT DAY FIVE...WE WILL HOLD OFF MAKING
ANY CHANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN A
TRADE WIND FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE
15 FOOT WARNING LEVEL INTO THURSDAY. CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED MINOR
INCIDENTS OF SURF WASHING ONTO ROADS NEAR LAWAI BEACH ON KAUAI AND
IN NANAKULI ON OAHU...AS WELL AS WATER SPLASHING OVER THE SEA WALL
AT ALII DRIVE IN KAILUA KONA. SURF IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW THE
WARNING LEVEL ON THURSDAY...YET REMAIN ABOVE THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF
8 FEET INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LARGE OPEN OCEAN SWELLS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WINDS IN MAALAEA BAY
HIGH SURF WARNING...SOUTH FACING SHORES

&&

WROE