Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 041945
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
939 AM HST FRI FEB 4 2005

HIC001-042130-
HAWAII-
939 AM HST FRI FEB 4 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1130 AM HST FOR THE ISLAND
OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY...

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PAHOA...
KURTISTOWN...KEAAU...KAPOHO...HILO...HAWAIIAN PARADISE PARK...
HAWAIIAN BEACHES...GLENWOOD AND MOUNTAIN VIEW.

AS OF 800 AM HST...SIGNIFICANT 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDE 11.26 
INCHES AT MOUNTAIN VIEW...7.90 INCHES AT HILO AIRPORT...8.49 INCHES 
AT THE PALI 2 RAIN GAGE...5.86 INCHES AT KAPAPALA RANCH AND 5.03 
INCHES AT PAHALA.

HAWAII COUNTY CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT HIGHWAY 11 
BETWEEN PAHALA AND NAALEHU WAS STILL CLOSED NEAR KAWA FLATS DUE TO 
HEAVY RUNOFF.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

ESCAPE RISING WATER BY CLIMBING DIRECTLY TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY
TO OUTRACE A FLOOD...EITHER ON FOOT OR IN YOUR VEHICLE. DO NOT CAMP
NEAR STREAMS OR OTHER AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

LAT...LON 1890 15568 1950 15474 1983 15504 1950 15538
      1918 15569

$$

KODAMA

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI FEB 4 2005

CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME ABOVE

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. WITH THE TROUGH
WEAKENING...TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STUBBORN AND SHARP TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND. OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...RAINFALL HAS STARTED
TO AFFECT OAHU...THOUGH COMING FROM A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS IN THE KAIWI CHANNEL...SHOWERS ARE HITTING MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH...THEN REVERSING COURSE NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE AND RETURNING TO HIT KAUAI AND OAHU. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED AND REDIRECTED IS MAINLY FOCUSED ON OAHU AT
THE MOMENT...CREATING CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WET TRADES.

EARLY THIS MORNING...ROAD CLOSURES IN THE KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG
ISLAND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND
MAY EVEN NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER AREAS. OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS THE EASTERN TIP OF MAUI FROM KIPAHULU THROUGH HANA.
UP TO THIS POINT...THE FORECAST REASONING WAS TO ASSOCIATE THE HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT WITH
WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON OAHU...THIS PHILOSOPHY NO LONGER HOLDS.

THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN A TOUGH FORECAST...AND THE CURRENT
SCENARIO IS NOT DIFFERENT. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS...AND ARE LACKING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH TRADES EARLIER
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE ISLANDS A BIT LONGER IN A WEAKENED STATE...RATHER THAN
DRIFT OFF TOWARD THE EAST. IN FACT...GFS IS NOW ADVERTISING THE
TROUGH TO SHIFT WESTWARD...ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF THE TRADES OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS HAS DEMONSTRATED A SLIGHT WESTWARD
DRIFT OVERNIGHT...BUT WHETHER THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...CHANCE FOR FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY....AND WE MIGHT BE
IN FOR A MUGGY COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...OUR DATE
WITH THE TRADEWINDS IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...BUT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SHOOTING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OAHU MAUI MOLOKAI LANAI KAHOOLAWE AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

TANABE