Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Honolulu, HI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED FEB 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY. TONIGHT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. A TROUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL LINGER NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEK...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NEAR THE BIG ISLANDS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM KAUAI SOUTHWARD
LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
TRADES MAY POSSIBLY RETURN TO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNED EN MASSE TO THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...PROMPTING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
MOST EVERYWHERE...AND EVENTUALLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
ISLAND OF KAUAI JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS EXPECTED...A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS FORMED OVER THE ISLANDS AND THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
OVER MAUI COUNTY. OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...THE SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. GAGES INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN 11PM AND 3AM. IN
SOME AREAS WITHOUT RAIN GAGES...RADAR ESTIMATES PLACED ONE HOUR
TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THOUGH THESE
ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...THEY ARE NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. THE HANALEI BRIDGE WAS REPORTED CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING AT 210AM...AND REMAINS CLOSED AS OF 330 AM. LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING
MAUI COUNTY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE COZIES UP TO KAUAI. THE DEPTH OR
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL PEAK TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY FILL IN WHILE STARTING A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST. THAT
SAID...WILL INCLUDE KAUAI IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL CONCENTRATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE ISLANDS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL RIDE IN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW STARTING WITH KAUAI
THURSDAY...AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. IT APPEARS TRADES MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BUT WE HAVE SEEN
THIS BEFORE...ONLY TO GET DISAPPOINTED LATER ON. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY
KEEP THE TRADEWIND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI THROUGH TODAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MAUI KAHOOLAWE AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

TANABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
908 AM HST WED FEB 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HANALEI                 22.21N 159.50W
02/02/2005                   KAUAI              HI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HANALEI BRIDGE CLOSED AT 210AM.

0845 AM     WATER SPOUT      4 NNW MAILI             21.47N 158.21W
02/02/2005                   HONOLULU           HI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE WATERSPOUT REPORTED 2 MILES OFFSHORE MAKAHA.

0845 AM     WATER SPOUT      6 W BARBERS POINT HOUSI 21.32N 158.18W
02/02/2005                   XXX                XX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATERSPOUT SPOTTED OFF THE COAST OF BARBERS POINT.

&&

LHARLAN