Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM KTDW THROUGH CYMT UP TO CYZV WITH CONVECTION WELL OUT AHEAD
OF IT.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE COAST WITH
CONVECTION MAKING IT TO THE COAST BY SUNSET.  GFS SHOWS MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF OVERNIGHT THAN DOES ETA BUT WILL ELECT TO GO WITH
CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WILL CONTINUE
ENHANCED WORDING ABOUT WINDS/SMALL HAIL THIS EVENING.  FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL GO WITH RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE HEAD
INTO A VERY WET SCENARIO NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TEMPERATURES A
BLEND OF MAV/MET DATA.  WILL ISSUE A ESF TO ADDRESS POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DEGREE OF FLOODING WITH THE WED/THU EVENT.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS
DIVERGE.  GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN THE NAM.  NAM HOLDS ENERGY
BACK IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND KEEPS NE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE CIRCULATION FINALLY FILLS ON FRIDAY.  SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON
THE POPS/TIMING FOR STEADY PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.  IN ANY CASE...EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING...THEN DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  A VERY LATE SEASON NORTHEASTER TO ENTER THE AREA.  MAY NEED
TO GO ABOVE WIND/WAVE GUIDANCE AS MODELS MAY BE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
845 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-060853-
ANDROSCOGGIN ME-BELKNAP NH-CENTRAL SOMERSET ME-COASTAL CUMBERLAND ME-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM NH-COASTAL WALDO ME-COASTAL YORK ME-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND ME-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM NH-INTERIOR WALDO ME-
INTERIOR YORK ME-KENNEBEC ME-KNOX ME-LINCOLN ME-MERRIMACK NH-
NORTHERN CARROLL NH-NORTHERN COOS NH-NORTHERN FRANKLIN ME-
NORTHERN GRAFTON NH-NORTHERN OXFORD ME-SAGADAHOC ME-
SOUTHERN CARROLL NH-SOUTHERN COOS NH-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN ME-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON NH-SOUTHERN OXFORD ME-SOUTHERN SOMERSET ME-
STRAFFORD NH-SULLIVAN NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALFRED...AUBURN...AUGUSTA...BATH...
BELFAST...BERLIN...BETHEL...BETHLEHEM...BIDDEFORD...
BOOTHBAY HARBOR...BRIDGTON...BRUNSWICK...CAMDEN...CLAREMONT...
COBURN GORE...COLEBROOK...CONCORD...CONWAY...DAMARISCOTTA...DERRY...
DOVER...DURHAM...EUSTIS...EXETER...FAIRFIELD...FARMINGTON...
FRANKLIN...FRYEBURG...GARDINER...HAMPTON...HENNIKER...JACKMAN...
KITTERY...LACONIA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...LEWISTON...LINCOLN...
LINCOLNVILLE...LITTLETON...MECHANIC FALLS...MEREDITH...
MOULTONBOROUGH...NAPLES...NEW LONDON...NORTH WINDHAM...NORTHWOOD...
OAKLAND...OSSIPEE...PITTSFIELD...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...PORTSMOUTH...
RANGELEY...ROCHESTER...ROCKLAND...RUMFORD...SALEM...SANFORD...
SEARSPORT...SKOWHEGAN...SOUTH PARIS...SOUTH PORTLAND...THORNDIKE...
TOPSHAM...TURNER...WATERVILLE...WESTBROOK...WISCASSET AND WOODSVILLE
845 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH MAY EVEN STALL FOR A WHILE OVER
THE REGION...COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DEGREE OF FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NHZ003-005-007-052236-
NORTHERN GRAFTON NH-SOUTHERN GRAFTON NH-SULLIVAN NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...CLAREMONT...LEBANON...
LINCOLN...LITTLETON...PLYMOUTH AND WOODSVILLE
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FROM
HANOVER NORTH TO HAVERHILL BETWEEN 445 PM AND 530 PM. THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN LESS THAN 40 MINUTES. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL RESULT IN STREET
FLOODING...AS WELL AS SHARP RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS.

THE STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT LINCOLN...WENTWORTH...DORCHESTER AND
CANAAN AFTER 515 PM WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHTNING.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
525 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

MEZ007-NHZ001-002-052324-
NORTHERN COOS NH-NORTHERN OXFORD ME-SOUTHERN COOS NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BERLIN...COLEBROOK AND LANCASTER
525 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT
COOS AND OXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS
THEY AFFECT SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY AND NORTHERN OXFORD COUNTIES. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT DUMMER...MILAN...UPTON AND ANDOVER
THROUGH 600 PM.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN
IN LESS THAN 40 MINUTES. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL RESULT IN STREET
FLOODING...AS WELL AS SHARP RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING IN COOS OR OXFORD COUNTIES...BE ON THE
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER.

HAYES