Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS CWA FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TO DOWNEAST MAINE. STORMS FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
BEEN SLOW MOVING AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS VERIFIED. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
AVAILABLE INSOLATION HELPS THEM FALL APART. NEXT PROBLEM IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN
PICKED UP WELL BY THE ETA. THE ETA DEVELOPS THE STRATUS SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS THE LOW CLOUDS INLAND
ABOUT 20 MILES. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ETA SOLUTION FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST ON
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST...
AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND STRATUS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE GULF OF MAINE...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO COME INTO THE COASTAL ZONES. ALSO EXPECT THE NEXT SET OF ZONES
INLAND TO BE AFFECTED AS WELL. BASED ON THIS...LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

THE STRATUS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIFT AS THE LATE JUNE SUNSHINE SCOURS
THE MIXED LAYER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES EXPECTED...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE. AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACH 17 C...THE HIGHER GFS MOS NUMBERS
LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER SUPPORT IN THE MID LEVELS.
MAY BE A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER A MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG MOVE INLAND. LOCATIONS MORE THAN 20 MILES INLAND
WILL NOT DROP AS LOW AS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO SET UP OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

ANZ150-170-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-271100-
ANDROSCOGGIN ME-BELKNAP NH-CENTRAL SOMERSET ME-COASTAL CUMBERLAND ME-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM NH-COASTAL WALDO ME-COASTAL YORK ME-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND ME-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM NH-INTERIOR WALDO ME-
INTERIOR YORK ME-KENNEBEC ME-KNOX ME-LINCOLN ME-MERRIMACK NH-
NORTHERN CARROLL NH-NORTHERN COOS NH-NORTHERN FRANKLIN ME-
NORTHERN GRAFTON NH-NORTHERN OXFORD ME-SAGADAHOC ME-
SOUTHERN CARROLL NH-SOUTHERN COOS NH-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN ME-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON NH-SOUTHERN OXFORD ME-SOUTHERN SOMERSET ME-
STRAFFORD NH-SULLIVAN NH-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA
OUT 25 NM-
WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA FROM 25
TO 40 NM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALFRED...AUBURN...AUGUSTA...BATH...
BELFAST...BERLIN...BETHEL...BETHLEHEM...BIDDEFORD...
BOOTHBAY HARBOR...BRIDGTON...BRUNSWICK...CAMDEN...CLAREMONT...
COBURN GORE...COLEBROOK...CONCORD...CONWAY...DAMARISCOTTA...DERRY...
DOVER...DURHAM...EUSTIS...EXETER...FAIRFIELD...FARMINGTON...
FRANKLIN...FRYEBURG...GARDINER...HAMPTON...HENNIKER...JACKMAN...
KITTERY...LACONIA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...LEWISTON...LINCOLN...
LINCOLNVILLE...LITTLETON...MECHANIC FALLS...MEREDITH...
MOULTONBOROUGH...NAPLES...NEW LONDON...NORTH WINDHAM...NORTHWOOD...
OAKLAND...OSSIPEE...PITTSFIELD...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...PORTSMOUTH...
RANGELEY...ROCHESTER...ROCKLAND...RUMFORD...SALEM...SANFORD...
SEARSPORT...SKOWHEGAN...SOUTH PARIS...SOUTH PORTLAND...THORNDIKE...
TOPSHAM...TURNER...WATERVILLE...WESTBROOK...WISCASSET AND WOODSVILLE
315 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

MEZ018-023-262021-
COASTAL YORK ME-INTERIOR YORK ME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALFRED...BIDDEFORD...KITTERY AND SANFORD
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
AS THEY PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MILES AN HOUR THROUGH
THROUGH 430 PM. IN ADDITION THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45
MILES AN HOUR AND SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A
HAZARD BEFORE THESE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
332 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     FLOOD            OSSIPEE                 43.69N 71.12W
06/26/2005                   CARROLL            NH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAPLE GROVE ROAD IN OSSIPEE WASHED OUT

&&

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

NHZ010-262201-
STRAFFORD NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...DURHAM AND ROCHESTER
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STRAFFORD COUNTY THROUGH 600
PM...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST STRAFFORD
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN PLACES LIKE SOMERSWORTH...DOVER AND
MADBURY...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL RESULT IN STREET FLOODING...AS WELL AS
SHARP RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
419 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

NHZ013-014-262219-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM NH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DERRY...EXETER...HAMPTON...NORTHWOOD...
PORTSMOUTH AND SALEM
419 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROCKINGHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM...

EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING...AS WELL AS RAPID RISES ON SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT NEWMARKET...CANDIA...FREMONT AND
PLAISTOW BETWEEN 420 PM AND 500 PM.

HAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
529 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARSONSFIELD            43.73N 70.93W
06/26/2005                   YORK               ME   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARSONSFIELD            43.73N 70.93W
06/26/2005                   YORK               ME   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERBORO               43.54N 70.72W
06/26/2005                   YORK               ME   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

HAYES

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