Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS42 KGSP 051634
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1134 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT COOLED AS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS EXPECTED...AND WHAT
ORIGINALLY LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT WILL FALL MORE AS A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
NOW APPEAR THAT THEY WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.

NCZ033-049-050-060045-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051206T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1134 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. 

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT
OF BLUE RIDGE. A FEW HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RIDGETOPS AND AT SOME OF THE HIGHER GAPS...WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-060045-
/O.CON.KGSP.SN.Y.0003.051205T1800Z-051206T1100Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE
1134 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY. 

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BY MID AFTERNOON AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL JUST SEE RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW SHOWERS END LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER GAPS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER
AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BALSAMS AND SMOKIES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

NCZ034-054-055-060045-
/O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051206T0500Z/
CALDWELL-MCDOWELL-BURKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...MORGANTON
1134 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY THE TIME THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF THIS
EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF LITTLE SWITZERLAND AND JONAS
RIDGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
LENOIR... MORGANTON...AND MARION...WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN FROM THIS
EVENT... THOUGH SNOW AND SLEET MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

MOORE

000 
WWUS42 KGSP 052106
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...SOME WINTRY WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HAS DECREASED OVER ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS COLDER AIR FINALLY
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

NCZ033-049-050-060515-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051206T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0002.051205T2106Z-051206T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
406 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET...DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. A TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-052215-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SN.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051206T1100Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE
406 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE SNOW ADVISORY. 

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...GENERALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000
FEET...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ALTOGETHER NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.

$$

NCZ034-054-055-052215-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051206T0500Z/
CALDWELL-MCDOWELL-BURKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...MORGANTON
406 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW OR
SLEET AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OR SOUTH
MOUNTAINS... BUT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ALTOGETHER NO LATER THAN MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
432 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
COLD AIR HAS NOT INVADED AS EARLY AS EXPECTED...NECESSITATING
FURTHER BACKING AWAY FROM WINTER PRECIP FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS ARE NOT
ENCOURAGING...AS AN INFLECTION POINT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE IMAGERY
OVER N GA AND A BACK EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL ALL BUT
END...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE AXIS OF
PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE PIEDMONT AND MIDLANDS. THIS WOULD SPELL DOOM
FOR THE WARNING/ADVISORIES. UNFORTUNATELY...HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT
TO STAY THE COURSE AND HOPE THAT SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING CAN WORK BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND BRING
LIGHT PRECIP BACK IN. WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE KEPT NONETHELESS
AND WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW REMAINS HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME NW FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EVENING. THE ZONE
UPDATE WILL TAKE SOME OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL CONTAIN EVENING
CHANGES.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THEY
SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 432 AM...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
IMPRESSIVE IR SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS THE SE US THIS MORNING.
STALLED SW TO NE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
UNTIL FRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE A COMPROMISE OF
THE NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG BAND OF JET DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEEPEN AND TRACK NE ACROSS AL AND GA THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...A
SECONDARY CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN LA/MS. THE NAM
DEPICTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EXIST AS THE FRONTAL WAVE
ARRIVES...LEADING TO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER NE GA
AND THE UPSTATE TODAY...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT RAINFALL
CONCERNS FOR TODAY.

CAA HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...THIS IS A BIT OF A TIMING CHANGE
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS POSTPONED CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WX PRODUCTS. THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUNGE OVER THE MTNS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH DURING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...THE
SECONDARY PRECIPITATION SURGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL FURTHER
EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS...WILL INDICATE THAT
ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN MTNS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. AS THICKNESSES FALL THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW 3K FEET AND POSSIBILITY INTO THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS TO BE RATHER SHORT LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN MTNS. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SLEET COULD BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE NC FOOTHILLS. THE SRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ELEVATION DEPENDANT P-TYPES TODAY WITH >3K FEET SNOW THIS MORNING
AND <3K FEET R/PL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED.

THE CHANGES MADE DURING THIS PACKAGE WOULD LEAD TO A LATER ONSET OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION RESULTING THE LESS ACCUMULATION. DUE TO THE
CHANGE WE HAVE REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET.
THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS AS BEEN CHANGE TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING TO DISCUSS WINTRY PRECIP ALONG WITH ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN
MTNS HAS BEEN RESERVED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED OVERNIGHT
TO COVER NW SNOW SHOWERS. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN EXPECTED SHOULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH TIME TO ACCUMULATE WINTER PRECIPITATION IN
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS. AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND ATMOSPHERE LEADS TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN ADJUSTED WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXTENDED TO FAVOR GFS SOLUTION OF
LATE WEEK STORM. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP/WX GRIDS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NCZ033-049-050 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058 FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-054-055 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-051115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
606 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN
UPSTATE AND THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR THESE AREAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...AS
WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SNOW AND
SLEET COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SALISBURY...KANNAPOLIS
AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHARLOTTE.

FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE UPSTATE...THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLATED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MCAVOY