Wind Advisory 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 242027
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE
WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
WINDS STEADILY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

NCZ033-049-050-242300-
/O.EXB.KGSP.LW.Y.0008.051124T2300Z-051125T1100Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
327 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH...WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
6 PM THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. LOCALLY
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
THE RIDGE TOPS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-250500-
/O.EXT.KGSP.LW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051125T0500Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
327 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-242300-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-051124T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
327 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
STRONG NW FLOW PRES GRAD PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORNING RAOBS
INDICATE 850 MB WINDS UP TO 40 KT FROM OHX TO RNK...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING 35 TO 40 KT PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH 70 KT 700 MB WINDS ARE INDICATED OVER THE
NRN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PEAK MIXING SHOULD ONLY REACH UP
TO ABOUT 825 MB...SO IT MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TAP ANY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. NRN MTN COUNTIES REPORT NO WIND PROBLEMS THUS FAR AND
BOONE AND WEST JEFFERSON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S...SO WILL CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING AND REPLACE WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS AGREE WITH SATELLITE IMAGES IN LIMITING LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS UPSTREAM OF THE WRN MTNS. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION CAN BE
REMOVED WITH JUST LINGERING W TO NW FLOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES.

TEMPS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED IN THE ERN PIEDMONT. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT FALLING TREND
IN TEMPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 258 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LOW OVER APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY SHOULD DROP
DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUSHING A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND A
COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWFA AND CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VERY STRONG 85H WINDS TODAY AND STRONG 85H COLD ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS APPROACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FEATURE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO APPROACH 50 KTS. IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT SUSTAINED WIND CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL
BE REACHED BUT POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE WITH ANY GUSTS.

WILL UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE PROGD TO BE A TAD
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT EVEN WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS...DOES NOT COME INTO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND ADD A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TEH CWFA.

85H COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
CURRENTLY...THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE
CWFA KAVL...WITH AN AMBIENT TEMPERATURE OF 51F...IS THE WARMEST
SPOT...A FULL 10 DEGREES OVER WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SAY KAVL SHOULD BE
AT THIS HOUR. SO...THE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED SURFACE RESPONSE TO
THE VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY DO MUCH BETTER
WITH COLD ADVECTION REGIMES. WE WILL USE A STANDARD DIURNAL TOOL
TODAY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT SHOW EARLY MAXES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ALSO...PROGD TO BANK
UP AGAINST THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS STILL NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PLUS MADISON TODAY. RAIN
EARLY...EXCEPT RAIN/SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPE TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MOST MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WITH TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FOR ALL OF THAT...THE PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW TODAY...30S
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER FROM MADISON TO AVERY...20S
FOR A SMALL BUFFER ZONE..THEN 15% OR LESS FOR THE ESCARPMENT AND
LOCATIONS EAST. WE LOWERED POPS TO ISOLATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWFA..INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE BORDER ZONES OF GRAHAM...SWAIN AND
HAYWOOD.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THE OVERNIGHT
RATHER MILD...AND DOWNSLOPE IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME THIS
AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MID 60S IN
THE SOUTH.

WIND GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SO...A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY...THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
GFS HAS BECOME MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE PROGD TO BE LIFTING OUT
OF THE GULF COAST REGION AT THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH GFS IS
AGGRESSIVE...NAM KICKS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO GEAR AND SPREADS
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY. WE WILL BUMP POPS TO
CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN CWFA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NITE...THEN RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AND BUMP UP CHANCES NORTHERN CWFA. NO CHANGES
MADE BEYOND SUNDAY NITE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUD SHIELD DISSIPATING WEST OF THE MTNS...EXPECT ONLY SHREDS OF
VFR CLOUDS TO EXIST EAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
6Z TAF PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL REMAIN THE MAIN TAF
CONCERN FOR ALL TERMINALS. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN
VEERING WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
KAVL WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR
MORE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM
     THURSDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034>037-048-051>059-062>072-082
     UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

NCZ033-049-050-251130-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
624 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WIND SPEEDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR60 MPH AT TIMES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT...
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAENPWGSP...FOR
DETAILS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.

WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A PROLONGED
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY...AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-251130-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
624 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR SO. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SEE THE LATEST TEXT
PRODUCT...ISSUED UNDER THE WMO PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER
CAENPWGSP...FOR DETAILS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN
INCREASES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-251130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
624 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY...FOR WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH. GUSTS COULD SURGE INTO THE 35 AND 40 MPH RANGE. SEE THE
LATEST ADVISORY TEXT...ISSUED UNDER THE WMO PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST
HEADER CAENPWGSP...FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

44