Tornado Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 070652
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

SCC007-070730-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-050707T0730Z/
ANDERSON SC-
250 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR ANDERSON
COUNTY...

AT 247 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF ANDERSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  SANDY SPRINGS AROUND 300 AM EDT...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU 
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE TO THE LOWEST LEVEL 
OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK 
SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3446 8296 3434 8279 3457 8248 3471 8272

$$
MCAVOY

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 070710
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

SCC007-070730-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-050707T0730Z/
ANDERSON SC-
309 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR ANDERSON
COUNTY...

AT 306 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
SANDY SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF ANDERSON...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN ANDERSON 
COUNTY THROUGH 330 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 3446 8296 3434 8279 3457 8248 3476 8261
      3471 8272 3466 8279

$$

MCAVOY

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 070733
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

SCC007-070741-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-050707T0730Z/
ANDERSON SC-
331 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR ANDERSON COUNTY EXPIRED AT 330 AM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHERN 
PART OF THE COUNTY. THE STORM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES 
NORTH INTO GREENVILLE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3446 8296 3434 8279 3457 8248 3476 8261
      3471 8272 3466 8279

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ISALLOBARIC TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE SFC CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE
REMNANTS OF CINDY ARE MOVING ENE ATTM. THIS MIGHT BE A BRIEF JOG TO
THE EAST CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES...THIS WOULD PUT THE
MTNS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN FOR LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS...AND
AGREES WITH HPC/S LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGHER TOTALS AS WELL.
THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM...ONE OF WHICH HAS A FEED INTO THE GULF. THESE BANDS
COULD PUT DOWN MULTIPLE INCH PER HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF THEY ARE NOT
OVERWHELMED BY DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL THEREFORE UP
AMOUNTS IN THE FFA TO 5 TO 7 INCHES ON AVERAGE WITH THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT. THIS COULD BE A TOUCH HIGH
CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

THIS EASTWARD JOG WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST MOST PARTS OF THE CWFA. ALREADY THE SFC WINDS IN THE
LEE HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE NE...AND EXPECT THAT TMB...OR BNDRY WHERE
STRONG SFC BACKING FROM SE TO NE OCCURS...WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
VCNTY OF AN ELBERTON TO GREENWOOD AND CHESTER LINE IF NOT FARTHER
SOUTH.

HAVE UPPED POPS TONIGHT OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWFA WHERE
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN HAS ALREADY ARRIVED. HAVE UPPED QPF AS WELL
FOR THE EVENT...BUT MADE FEW OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 301 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
CONVECTION FIRING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE...DRAPED PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO OUR SMOKY MOUNTAIN AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS EXPANDING RAPIDLY...AND RADAR
SHOWS ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE CENTER OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
THIS IS WHERE THE REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE. FOR RIGHT NOW.
THAT WILL BE CHANGING...AND EXPANDING IN A DRAMATIC WAY...OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

REMNANT CENTER OF CINDY EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ENHANCE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO REGION LATE TONITE...AND BY DAYBREAK...WE SHOULD SEE
DECENT RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG AND
ADJACENT TO THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. FLOOD GUIDANCE MUCH LOWER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...AND
THESE LOCATIONS SEEM PRIME TO BE THE FIRST TO SEE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE WILL INCLUDE THOSE LOCATIONS IN A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING
AT MIDNIGHT...WITH REST OF THE CWFA IN A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING AT 6
AM THURSDAY. COINCIDENT WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...WITH IMRPESSIVE 0-3 KM HELICITIES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT RAINFALL TO QUICKLY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ASPECT LOCATIONS NOT EXPECTED
TO END UNTIL LOW CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL 4 TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AT ELEVATED SOUTH-ASPECT AND SOUTHEAST ASPECT
LOCATIONS A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...WHERE ENHANCED
UPSLOPE COULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM JONAS RIDGE
TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND.

RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ENSUES FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY...A DECENT MID LEVL TROF IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO BE
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION. TODAY/S RUN FEATURES A DECENT AREA OF
DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY WE HELD ON
TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES TRICKY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH
CINDY REMNANTS. PROJECTING UPPER 60S/70S MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA SUN AND LINGERS INTO MON AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS AHEAD OF TS DENNIS AND UP ACROSS THE REGION.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF STORM...HAVE
LIMITED EXTENDED POPS AND QPF...OTHERWISE HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE USING A BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS...COMBINED
WITH LATEST NHC TRACK. LATEST FORECAST HAS DENNIS MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG GULF COAST VCNTY PENSACOLA SOMETIME EARLY MON MORNING AND
TRACKING N. REMNANT LOW DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG SFC BOUNDARY...MOVES N
TO CNTRL TN WED MORNING THEN TRACKS RAPIDLY NE. THIS TRACK COULD
STILL BRING EXCESSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE S APPALACHIANS.

AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA OVER MOST TAF
LOCATIONS AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SHOW
MORE RAINFALL BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE AT TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
WITH THUNDER CHANCES CREEPING INTO THE PICTURE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CINDY.

HYDROLOGY...

CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL BRINGS MAINSTEM RIVERS IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAIN TO...OR ABOVE...FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>050-053>057-064>072-082 FROM 6
     AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
     FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-071000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
613 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
OF HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM CINDY APPROACH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE
FLOOD WATCH...CAEFFAGSP AND THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
CINDY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...OR
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>064-SCZ001>006-010>012-019-
070645-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...GREENVILLE...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...GREENWOOD
1232 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EARLIER CAUSED TORNADOES
OR WIND DAMAGE AND FLASH FLOODING APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WAS
MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD REACH FRANKLIN COUNTY...HART
COUNTY...STEPHENS COUNTY...HABERSHAM COUNTY...RABUN COUNTY...AND
ELBERT COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM EDT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AND A GREATER
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THESE STORMS CAUSED DAMAGE AND FLASH
FLOODING AROUND THE ATLANTA AREA.

RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN
HAS OCCURRED ALREADY ACROSS PARTS OF RABUN...HABERSHAM...AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES. WHEN RAINFALL REACHES MORE THAN 2
INCHES...BECAUSE OF EXISTING WET GROUND CONDITIONS...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT...AND WARNINGS WILL BE
REQUIRED SOON AFTER THAT. FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS QUICKLY
FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CAUSES RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS...AND FILLS LOW AREAS ON ROADS VERY QUICKLY. AT
NIGHT...THE DANGER OF FLASH FLOODING IS MUCH GREATER.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.