Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING...STORM MOTIONS E AROUND 10 KTS. LAPS
INDICATES THAT CAPES RANGE FROM 300-500 OVER THE MTNS AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. STORMS MOVING OFF THE MTNS SHOULD THRIVE IN THE RICHER AIR
OVER THE FOOTHILLS. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND GENERATION OF
OUTFLOWS...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MID EVENING. EXPECT
THE ORDER OF COVERAGE TO FOLLOW HIGH TERRAIN...FOOTHILLS...SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONVECTION PINCHING NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HAYWOOD SVR STORM HAD 45-50 DBZ AROUND 30K FT AND A VIL OF
42 FROM KGSP.

STEADY EAST FLOW CIRCULATING FROM SRN GA LOW WILL BUILD MOISTURE
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE TONIGHT IN
THE FORM OF MID STRATUS. SH/TS SHOULD CONTINUE IN LESSER VALUES AS
DECENT VORT MAX PASSES WITH SHARP TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE SCT SH/TS
TONIGHT AND SUN. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SUN WITH THE ADDITION OF A
NOSING SFC HIGH FROM THE NE. WILL COOL TEMPS TO MET GUIDANCE AND
ADVERTISE A LIGHT NE WIND.

UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE...BUT LITTLE DEEP LIFT SEEN. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT...SO
WITH MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND WILL KEEP CHC POP. LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP MONDAY NIGHT...THEN REMNANT TROF MAKES A SLOW ELY
PROGRESS ON TUE. KEPT A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POP MONDAY NITE...BUT
HAVE A DRY FCST TUE AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HIGHS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH CLOUDS...NELY FLOW AND
LOW THICKNESSES. HIGHS RISE TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TUE DUE
TO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THICKNESSES AS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT. SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU THE TROF WED INTO OUR AREA PUSHING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THRU. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SPLIT AND PASS EAST AND WEST
OF OUR AREA...SO HAVE A DRY FCST FOR NOW. AREA REMAINS IN NWLY FLOW
UNTIL SAT WHEN RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT
WAVES MOVE THRU THE NWLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THU THEN HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU SATURDAY
AND MODERATES. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SLIGHT CHC AFT/EVE POP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FNT ON
WED...THEN SEASONAL VALUES THU. BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE MTNS AND IS MOVING ENE ATTM.
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH TCU OVER
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY ALONG WITH THE MTNS. WILL TEMPO IN PERIODS
OF TS/SH FOR ALL TERMINALS MINUS KCLT. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL 6Z...ATMOS BECOMES MORE STABLE AFTER 6Z. NAM DEPICTS
THAT THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SRN GA TONIGHT...KEEPING THE FA
UNDER DEEP EAST FLOW. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A PASSING VORT MAX
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE BL MOISTURE BUILDS BY SUNRISE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MVFR FOG
OVER AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUN...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY MID MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE VFR CEILING THROUGH 18Z WITH MENTION OF SH/TS.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-190800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
351 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY...SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-182000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
957 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND EAST WINDS
WILL GENERATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND BY THIS AFTERNOON
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...ALL HAZARDS...OR YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.

NED/RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             CANTON                  35.55N 82.84W
06/18/2005  0.75 INCH        HAYWOOD            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CANTON FIRE DEPT REPORTED

&&

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-182200-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-ELBERT-
FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-GRAHAM-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK NC-RABUN-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-UNION NC-
UNION SC-YANCEY-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...ASHEVILLE...
BREVARD...CHARLOTTE...CHEROKEE...CHESTER...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...
CONCORD...ELBERTON...FRANKLIN...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...GREENVILLE...
GREENWOOD...HARTWELL...HENDERSONVILLE...HICKORY...LAURENS...
LINCOLNTON...MARION...MOCKSVILLE...MONROE...MORGANTON...NEWLAND...
ROCK HILL...RUTHERFORDTON...SALISBURY...SHELBY...SPARTANBURG...
SPRUCE PINE...STATESVILLE...SYLVA...TOCCOA...TRYON...UNION...
WAYNESVILLE
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  A SEVERE STORM AROUND
CANTON CAUSED LARGE HAIL THERE. AROUND CULLOWHEE IN JACKSON COUNTY...
SMALL HAIL HAS COVERED THE GROUND TO AN INCH OR MORE DEPTH IN SOME
PLACES...AND THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.  WATER WAS REPORTED PONDING AROUND THAT AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A
WHILE...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING A BIT LATER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT.

STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.  COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  THE
CHARLOTTE AREA OF THE PIEDMONT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SOME STORMS BY
LATER IN THE EVENING.

JONES