Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MIXED MORNING STRATUS HAS SET UP AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...SPAWNING LINE OF TS.
LATEST LAPS CAPES AND CIN INDICATES THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. SATELLITE AND VIEW OUT THE WINDOW CONFIRM
THAT CU HAS NOT YET FORMED OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND
UPSTATE. HOWEVER...RADAR DOES DETECT A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ADVANCING FROM THE MIDLANDS TOWARD THE CWA. EXPECT THAT IT IS JUST A
MATTER OF TIME UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
DEVELOPS OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS.

STORM MOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VERY SLOW
LEADING TO MOST STORMS LIVING THEIR LIFE CYCLES CLOSE TO WHERE IT
BEGAN. WILL FORECAST SOLID CHC POPS AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WIND/ISO HAIL EVENTS. DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD ASH OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS USED
UP AND SFC COOLS. AS SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC HAS SEPARATED THE SEA BREEZE CU FROM THE COAST AND HAS
ADVECTED IT INLAND. NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO
AROUND A MB JUST EAST OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT. MOS INDICATES MAINLY
MVFR FOG BY SUNRISE WED.

MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WILL COOL MAXES
EACH DAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND UNSTABLE LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM NEAR LIKELY OVER THE MTNS TO SOLID CHC EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST MOST OF THE PERIOD. IT DOES
RETROGRADE A LITTLE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CWFA UNTIL THAT TIME. CONSENSUS IS TO
DOWNPLAY GFS GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. STILL
EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH CHANCES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. POP
SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT STILL IN CHC RANGE MON AND TUE. GIVEN THE
RIDGING AND DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...THINK OPERATIONAL MEX
TEMPS...ESP MAXES...TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGHEST ENSEMBLE
MEMBER...CLOSE TO PREV FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT QUITE A SIMILAR TAF FCST TODAY...BUT CLOSE. CONVECTION FIRING A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS REASONING OF VCTS ALL SITES WITH
AMENDMENTS WHEN/IF TSRA APPROACH TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK SELY
FLOW/UPGLIDE. THIS RESULTS IN MVFR/IFR CIGS...AND SOME SHOWERS...BY
DAYBREAK. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AND THE LOW
CLOUDS...EXPECT ONLY MVFR FOG. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS LIFT
BY MID-MORNING. LOWEST CLOUDS WILL BE AT KAVL. SHORTEST TIME WITH
MVFR...AND FEW IF ANY SHOWERS...WILL BE KHKY AND KCLT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-080945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
541 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...SPSGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-072230-
ALEXANDER-CABARRUS-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-GASTON-IREDELL-LINCOLN NC-
MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...GASTONIA...HICKORY...
LINCOLNTON...MOCKSVILLE...SALISBURY...SHELBY...STATESVILLE
520 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...

AT 510 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED TWO AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGING ON THE PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ONE AREA WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH CAROLINA. THE OTHER
WAS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...BUT WAS DEVELOPING WESTWARD
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE