Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...VALID AT 340 PM
EST. A QUICK UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO REMOVE HEADLINES FROM THE
ZONE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 207 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SW FLOW INCREASING AS H5 TROF DIGS OVER MS VALLEY INTO GULF AND
TRACKS E TOWARD AREA. DEEP MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM SW WILL BRING
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG S WINDS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S FACING MTN
ESCARPMENT. QPF LESS THAN 2 INCHES HOWEVER AND 6HR FFG IS 3-4IN SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH. MODEL CAPE GETS UP TO 1100 AND HELICITY
NEAR 300 SW CWA BRIEFLY THIS EVE BUT FIZZLES QUICKLY AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES NE. VERY LITTLE THUNDER WITH THIS SYS AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING.
WILL KEEP CHANCE TSTMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH 50-60KT WINDS FORECAST AT
85H WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH
BY MID DAY FRI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEG COLDER SAT-SUN...LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 20S BY SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AFTER THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW
THAT REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE MON MORNING AND
ANOTHER SHOT WED NIGHT. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THESE FRONTS DROP INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE BELOW NORMAL MEX AND HPC GUIDANCE. MOISTURE SUPPLY
LOOKS WEAK AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS AND WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SCHC MTN
SN...WITH FLURRIES MENTIONED WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS.

AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON RUC AND MESOETA AND LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WILL EXPECT THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-4Z FRI. UNTIL THEN A
STIFF AND GUSTY SW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AS THE SHRA AND TS
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOMENTUM FROM THE
LLVL JET COULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED FROM 3-10Z.
NW WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS
TOMORROW...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WILL ADVERTISE WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR KAVL FROM 12Z ON.

THE CONCERN FOR LLWS REMAINS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SUSPECT THAT THE
PEAK PERIOD FOR LLWS WILL ARRIVE AT 0Z WEST AND SPREAD TO KCLT BY
6-10Z.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 12
     AM EST.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-037-038-054>057-
     066>072-082 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-141110-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
546 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE LATEST
NPWGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION. OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
FOR DETAILS (CAESPSGSP).

A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS RECEIVING
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. REFER TO THE SPS FOR DETAILS ON THIS
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TORNADO          5 N CROSS HILL          34.38N 81.98W
01/13/2005                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STRUCTUAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN AND AROUND GHOST
            CREEK RD...MEKOM BEACH RD...AND NEELY FERRY RD.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
814 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TORNADO          LAURENS                 34.50N 82.03W
01/13/2005                   LAURENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            PART OF ROOF FROM LAURENS HIGH SCHOOL BLOWN OFF AND ONTO
            RAIDER ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TORNADO          1 NW LAURENS            34.51N 82.04W
01/13/2005                   LAURENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            MOBILE HOME DESTROYED ON WELCOME CHURCH RD. TREES
            CRUSHING CARS.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

SCZ009-014-140215-
CHESTER-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...ROCK HILL
831 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...

AT 825 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TIP OF CHESTER COUNTY NEAR LOCKHART AT AROUND 835 PM. IT
WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST YORK COUNTY AT AROUND 840 PM...AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT
915 PM.

SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS EVENING.
PERSONS IN LOCKHART...SHARON...YORK...CLOVER...AND SURROUNDING AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR...AND BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF A TORNADO WARNING
IS ISSUED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
908 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

NCZ070-071-140245-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...GASTONIA
908 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

AT 9 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH A HISTORY OF STRONG ROTATION OVER WESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ENTER
GASTON COUNTY SOUTH OF GASTONIA AT AROUND 920 PM...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY THROUGH 945 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT
ENTERS GASTON COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

PERSONS ACROSS EASTERN GASTON...AND WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IN CASE A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ029-SCZ003-006-007-010>012-019-140322-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-ELBERT GA-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-SPARTANBURG SC-
927 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPSTATE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH
ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ALONG THE LINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE LINE WILL REACH THE GREENVILLE METRO AREA BY 945 PM...AND THE
AREA FROM SIMPSONVILLE TO ABBEVILLE...BETWEEN 945 PM AND 1015 PM.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE
LIMBS. EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AS THE LINE
OF STORMS PASSES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

MOORE