Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...VALID AT 340 PM
EST. A QUICK UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO REMOVE HEADLINES FROM THE
ZONE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 207 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SW FLOW INCREASING AS H5 TROF DIGS OVER MS VALLEY INTO GULF AND
TRACKS E TOWARD AREA. DEEP MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM SW WILL BRING
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG S WINDS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S FACING MTN
ESCARPMENT. QPF LESS THAN 2 INCHES HOWEVER AND 6HR FFG IS 3-4IN SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH. MODEL CAPE GETS UP TO 1100 AND HELICITY
NEAR 300 SW CWA BRIEFLY THIS EVE BUT FIZZLES QUICKLY AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES NE. VERY LITTLE THUNDER WITH THIS SYS AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING.
WILL KEEP CHANCE TSTMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH 50-60KT WINDS FORECAST AT
85H WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH
BY MID DAY FRI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEG COLDER SAT-SUN...LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 20S BY SUN MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AFTER THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW
THAT REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE MON MORNING AND
ANOTHER SHOT WED NIGHT. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THESE FRONTS DROP INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND WILL ADVERTISE TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE BELOW NORMAL MEX AND HPC GUIDANCE. MOISTURE SUPPLY
LOOKS WEAK AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS AND WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SCHC MTN
SN...WITH FLURRIES MENTIONED WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS.

AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON RUC AND MESOETA AND LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WILL EXPECT THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-4Z FRI. UNTIL THEN A
STIFF AND GUSTY SW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AS THE SHRA AND TS
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOMENTUM FROM THE
LLVL JET COULD TRANSLATE TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED FROM 3-10Z.
NW WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS
TOMORROW...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WILL ADVERTISE WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR KAVL FROM 12Z ON.

THE CONCERN FOR LLWS REMAINS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SUSPECT THAT THE
PEAK PERIOD FOR LLWS WILL ARRIVE AT 0Z WEST AND SPREAD TO KCLT BY
6-10Z.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 12
     AM EST.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-037-038-054>057-
     066>072-082 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 12 AM EST.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-141110-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
546 AM EST THU JAN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE LATEST
NPWGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION. OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
FOR DETAILS (CAESPSGSP).

A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS RECEIVING
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. REFER TO THE SPS FOR DETAILS ON THIS
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LAMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-140500-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
319 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS BRINGING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN THROUGH THE ADJACENT
PIEDMONT EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL 3 INCH
TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM ROBBINSVILLE TO
FRANKLIN TO BREVARD. ALTHOUGH SOIL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY
DRY...RAINFALL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE STANDING WATER IN
LOW SPOTS...AND FAIRLY RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS EVENING. COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-132142-
BUNCOMBE NC-GRAHAM NC-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
342 PM EST THU JAN 13 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 12 FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

MCAVOY