Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVG INTO W CWA ATTM. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER
...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AND AS UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD LATER TODAY EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS CWA. WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS...WX...TEMP...SKY AND WIND GRIDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 343 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW AND SFC FNT MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. FASTER GFS IS THE CONSENSUS PICK...SO HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THAT MDL. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE
IS VERY LITTLE ONGOING PRECIP ATTM. MDL FCST SHOWS VERY LITTLE
PRECIP AT 06Z...SO HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. THERE
WILL BE GOOD GULF INFLOW AS H85 JET PICKS UP. ALSO UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
APPROACHES. AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT WILL HELP PULL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN AS WELL. WITH THE FASTER ONSET AND SLY UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING...HAVE CAT POP WEST AND LIKELY POP EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE IN WITH UPPER LOW.
ALSO 06Z SFC CHART SHOWS MID 50 DEW POINTS ALMOST TO ST LOUIS.

AS LIFT AND MOISTURE SWING THRU THE AREA...BEST PRECIP CHC MOVES
EAST THIS EVENING. HAVE CAT POP EAST AND LIKELY WEST ALONG WITH CHC
THUNDER. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED...QPF NOT VERY HIGH
GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM AND NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. PRECIP
QUICKLY MOVES SHUTS OFF OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIFT
PULLS OUT AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN. LIKELY POP CONTINUES OVER THE MTNS
WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NWLY FLOW. LIKELY POP CONTINUES
OVER THE NC MTNS THU MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE AND FLOW CONTINUING.
POP CHC ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MTNS THU AFT AND THU
EVENING AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND NWLY FLOW ABATES.

NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. MDLS
ARE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. COLD AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT SNOW LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH THAT SNOW ONLY POSSIBLE OVER
5000 FT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT THU...BUT QPF AMOUNTS
NOT VERY HIGH. ALSO LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM ENUF THAT SNOW MIX MORE
LIKELY THAN ALL SNOW. AS PRECIP SHUTS OFF THU EVENING...COLD AIR
PULLS OUT AND ATMOS WARMS. COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND SFC TEMP. HOWEVER ONLY SLIGHT CHC
PRECIP AT THIS TIME AND ANY QPF WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

DRY FCST FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT PRECIP
MAKER.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NAM AND GFS ARE FASTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
MAKER FOR OUR CWFA...BRINGING GULF INFLOW AND SOLID CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND
MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH
TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY LATE IN THE
FRIDAY NITE PERIOD. ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD A TAD
FRIDAY NITE DUE TO MORE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION...THEN COOLED MAXES SOME SATURDAY WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL.
SOUTHERN-FACING HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED SOLID RAIN CHANCES WESTERN ZONES AND
LOW CHANCE EAST FOR NOW ON SATURDAY...THO A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT
ALL LOCATIONS DESERVE AT LEAST A 50/50 SHOT OF RAINFALL SATURDAY.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE OTHER WEATHER VARIABLES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW
SATURDAY EVENING...HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MIX IN WITH ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW...WE WILL
ADVERTISE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY NITE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THIS WAVE TRAIN MOVES THRU DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. GRIDS HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED FOR...SO NO CHANGES AFTER
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...
CIRRUS INVADING FROM W...AND LIGHT S WINDS TO CONTINUE. MID AND THEN
LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W EARLY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS APPROACHING AT MID MORNING. WITH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
SPREADING EAST ACROSS AREA IN WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...
WILL CARRY LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL TIME
SECTIONS. LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET MAXES MOVE ROUGHLY FROM KAND
TO KCLT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER RAINFALL AT TAF SITES NW OF THIS
LINE...BUT ALL SITES TO GET MVFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH
THUNDER AT KAND WHERE INSTABILITY BEST. WIND VEERS SLIGHTLY WED
EVENING...AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY SLIGHTLY IN WAKE OF JET ENHANCED
LIFT...BUT SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER SOME...BUT DESPITE EXPECTED RAINFALL...WILL LEAVE VSBY VFR AS
WIND STAYS UP AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AND SHOULD HOLD FOG AT BAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-291100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
1005 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING DURING THE DAY. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
PLEASE SEE OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CAESPSGSP...FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-282115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1001 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA...NORTH GEORGIA...AND EAST TENNESSEE. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
WITH SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85 WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
UNSTABLE. THE AREA FROM HARTWELL AND ELBERTON GEORGIA...TO
GREENWOOD AND LAURENS...AND TO CHARLOTTE...ROCK HILL...AND MONROE
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1121 AM EST WED DEC 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     HAIL             HARTWELL                34.35N 82.93W
12/28/2005  0.50 INCH        HART               GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HART COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS HAD RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS
            OF MARBLE HAIL SCATTERED AROUND THE COUNTY

&&

JONES