Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL UPPER
DYNAMICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE
LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVE AND MON. WEAK UPPER DEFORMATION
ZONE PERSISTS HOWEVER JUST W OF MTNS AND IS VISIBLE ON SAT IMAGERY.
MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THAT STAYS
WELL N OF AREA BUT A WEAK TROF HAS SET UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH
SFC HEATING ADDED TO THESE OTHER WEAK FACTORS EXPECT SCT CONVECTION
THIS AFTN-EVE AND AGAIN LATE MON. RH REMAINS HIGH WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HEIGHTS ALOFT PROGD TO CONTINUE A SLOW FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINA BORDER. GFS QUITE
INSISTENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL SAG SOUTH TO THE PALMETTO
STATE...BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE...BUT NCEP DOES
SHOW THE FEATURE SAGGING INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NITE...THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS EAST AND NORTH WITH
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NITE...AND WE DID INDICATE CONTINUED
HIGHER ELEVATION POPS WEDNESDAY NITE/THURSDAY MOUNTAINS.

ANY COOLDOWN AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT WILL ERODE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGE AGAIN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
WE LOWERED MAXES TO 80S NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN BUMP
TEMPERATURES BACK TO 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. NO REAL TRIGGERS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
LOWER LEVELS PROGD TO REMAIN MOIST...SO POPS BY THE WEEKEND MORE OF
A DIURNAL NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SLOWER TO GET GOING TODAY AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS THIS AFTN-EVE. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCT TSTMS SO WILL RETAIN
VCTS AND CB CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. CIGS HAVE BEEN FORMING JUST
BELOW VFR SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BKN CIGS AROUND 3K
FT. MVFR FG/HZ EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON WITH PSBL IFR
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...SAB
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-151030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
627 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY. ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.