Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION TAKING ON A DIFFERENT PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON. CELLS MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER GA/SC MTNS...WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT SCT COVERAGE ALL AREAS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...ESP NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS. PWATS A LITTLE
LOWER AND STORM MOTION A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS. KEPT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
TIMING...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE SEEN IN SAT PIX MOVING SE OVER KY
COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALL NITE NC MTNS. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT NC MTNS.

WE STILL NEED TO WORK OUT THE TIMING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
12 UTC SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE
HANDLING OF A SHEARING S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN INCREASED
MID-LVL FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG EDGE OF DRYING ALOFT/COOL
POOL...COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CVRG WITH LOCALLY STRONG STORMS
...BUT GIVEN TIMING/STRENGTH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP CHANCES
SCATTERED UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN THEIR RISE ON SATURDAY AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE
BUILDS EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY PARKING ITSELF ATOP THE CWFA BY MONDAY.
WITHIN THIS VERY WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT...ANY ISOLATED DAILY
DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF
NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED. IT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVELY HOT EACH
DAY AS WELL WITH FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES 90 TO 95 SATURDAY WARMING
TO A MORE SOLID MIDDLE 90S ON MONDAY. INTERESTING DEWPOINT TRENDS
NOTED ON THE 12 UTC MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE FWC/MET NUMBERS TUMBLING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAV GUIDANCE HANGING TOUGH IN THE LOWER
70S. GIVEN THE DRY AND SUBSIDING AIRMASS...HAVE TO GIVE AT LEAST
A PARTIAL NOD TO DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOPEFULLY
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL...PERHAPS
KEEPING US JUST SHY OF HEAT INDEX CRITERIA...WE WILL SEE. FOR DAYS
5-7...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AND GIVES WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASED RETURN FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK TO AROUND
LATE JULY CLIMO AND INCREASING DAILY DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL TIME IN
VCTS AND LOW VFR CIGS WITH A MVFR TSRA TEMPO AT KAVL. VCTS ENDS
ABOUT 01Z THEN VFR UNTIL MVFR FOG DEVELOPS ABOUT 09Z. THE EXCEPTION
ONCE AGAIN IS KAVL WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS WITH IFR
VSBY/LIFR CIGS. VFR RETURNS ABOUT 13Z WITH CU...AND CB AT
KAVL...DEVELOPING BY 16Z. A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A MID
LEVEL SWIRL SEEN IN SAT PIX MOVING SE THRU KY ATTM. THIS COULD
CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
KEEP TSRA AROUND LONGER THAN USUAL THIS EVENING. AS THIS IS NOT A
CERTAINTY WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EXTEND TSRA IF NECESSARY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH/CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-221100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
647 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THUS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE GREATEST THERE. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF AROUND 100 WILL BE REALIZED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 100 FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LANE

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