Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OH AND MS VALLEYS WITH REMAINS OF DENNIS
IN N PORTION...WITH UPPER RIDGING EITHER SIDE. AREA REMAINS IN
MOIST AIR MASS...WITH 70 OR GREATER DEW POINTS E OF MTS. KMRX
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS MTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS MORE
UNSTABLE AIR IN AFTERNOON HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD FLARE
UP...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS IT MOVES E. CAPE LIMITED
COMPARED TO LAST TWO DAYS...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS AREA. EXPECT MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
IN PRECIPITATION MOISTENED AIR. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WIND UP FROM
SW AT AROUND 3 TO 5 KNOTS...WHICH MAY KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
DENSE. HIGH DEW POINTS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND CONTINUE TO OPEN AND
FILL THROUGH FRIDAY...AS STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGING DEVELOPS FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND UPSLOPE TRIGGERING WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
NAM CAPE VALUES AGAIN APPEAR TOO LOW EACH AFTERNOON...AS MODEL
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SCHEME IS TRIGGERED TOO EARLY IN THE
DAY FRI AND SAT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY
LATE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHEST CHC VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS FINALLY IN PLACE.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRES REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION. WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY WED APPEARS TO WASH OUT AHEAD OF A NRN STREAM WAVE...WITH
ARRIVAL OF SECOND STRONGER FRONT DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. CHC
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE FEATURED ALONG WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY UNDER THE RIDGE.
&&

.AVIATION...
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MOIST AIR MASS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SUPPORT FOG ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. WILL ALLOW
CIGS/VSBYS AT IFR LATE TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE GUIDANCE
WINDS UP A BIT...AND WILL CARRY MVFR AT KGSP AND KGMU.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/JAT
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-151000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
556 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS A BIT HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTAINS A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND
STORMS SHOULD MOVE A BIT SLOWER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S MAYO                35.06N 81.85W
07/13/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            REPORTED THROUGH WSPA TV THEN INTERVIEW. LARGE OAKS HAD
            TOPS BLOWN OUT AND TWISTED OFF ALONG CITY BLOCK WIDE AREA
            AND PATH LENGTH OF AT LEAST 3000 FEET AT CHEROKEE
            SPRINGS. SOME TREES ON POWER LINES. HEARD LOUD PULSATING
            LOW HUM WITH STORM. NO HAIL NOTED AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TORNADO          3 SE LINCOLNTON         35.45N 81.21W
07/13/2005                   LINCOLN            NC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CONFIRMED TORNADO TRACK IN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED DAMAGE
            AREA. MAINLY TREE AND CROP DAMAGE. TRACK WAS INTERMITTENT
            3 MILES IN LENGTH AND 50-75 YDS WIDE. MAXIMUM F1 DAMAGE
            WITH MORE F0 DAMAGE.

&&

JONES