Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 120018
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
816 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

SCC073-120026-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-050712T0045Z/
OCONEE SC-
816 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OCONEE COUNTY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA 
MOUNTAINS...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3476 8307 3472 8287 3496 8291 3503 8299
      3492 8314

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO
THE NC PIEDMONT. DWPTS ARE VERY MOIST...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
SOUTH TO AROUND 70 NORTH. BASED ON THE WV LOOP...EXPECT THAT BAND
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM RUTHERFORD TO UNION WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN THE
IMMEDIATE FOCUS OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE FURTHER EAST
THE LESSER AMOUNTS OF SRH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT WAVES OF SH/TS TO ROTATE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE VORT LOBES SPINNING OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF CATE POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CAROLINA LINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM
TUES.

WITH THE RECENT HIGH COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW
WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S MIN FAIRLY MILD. ALSO...EXPECT OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS. WILL FORECAST TEMPS CLOSE TO THE 17Z
FLP WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE TRADITIONAL MOS. EVEN WITH THE
FORECASTED MILD TEMPS...VALUES WILL FALL VERY CLOSE IF NOT EXCEED
THIS EVENING/S CROSSOVER TEMPS. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SURROUNDED BY VERY
WEAK WIND IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.  BY TUESDAY MORNING... THE
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA WILL
HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY REPLACING THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGING UPON THE AXIS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE AIRMASS THAT IS
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF REMNANT DENNIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS THAT PERSISTS UNTIL THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM 700 MB UPWARD.  GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS BETWEEN 1.5 AND SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.  THE GFS DEPICTS CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION AFFECTING PRIMARILY OUR WESTERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY... OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING. THE FORECAST EACH DAY WILL
CONSIST OF CHANCE POPS... HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
EXCEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GFS MOS.

&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES OF SH/TS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTION WITH TEMPOS THROUGH 24Z. TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
MOS BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
EXPECT THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND VEERING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD A
SLOW TO IMPROVE STRATUS DECK TOMORROW MORNING. WILL FORECAST MVFR
CIGS BY 16Z...ALTHOUGH REALITY COULD BE LATER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ062>064 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001-002-004-005-010 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LGL
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-121015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
604 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS WILL FUEL NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TODAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE FLOOD
WATCH ISSUED AT 446 AM. IF A BAND OF SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER ANY
OTHER LOCATION...FLOODING RAINS COULD ACCUMULATE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 500 AM. THERE
IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO TODAY...MAINLY OVER
THE AREA WEST OF ASHEVILLE...GREENVILLE...AND LAURENS. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SO FLOODING RAIN WILL BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR ANY
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.

MOORE