Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
902 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPGLIDE OVER LLVL COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE
GA IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE UPSTATE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 4KFT OF
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE I-77 CORRIDOR
WHERE EFFECTS OF DEEP ELY FLOW AND ADVANCING SHORT WAVE WL NOT BE
FELT AS STRONGLY FOR A WHILE YET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR DAYS 1-2 GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR. NAM
AND GFS ARE NOISY WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OVERACTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING BASICALLY ALONG
I-20 FROM LA TO SC. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT SHRA/TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL GA. WV SHOWS
WHAT APPEARS AS AN MCV OVER THE AL/GA LINE AHEAD OF THE MAIN L/W
TROF. H5 TROF WILL APPROACH TODAY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS
ROTATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...H85 UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT THIS MORNING
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. STEERING FLOW COULD BRING CELLS ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY BY MID MORNING. SREF INDICATES THAT CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1K-2K J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID DAY CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE UPSTATE AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH TERRAIN/UPSLOPE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPAWN
CONVECTION...COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ADVERTISE NUM SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH
SCT EAST.

L/W TROF AXIS WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE FL COAST. SHRA/TSTM MAY LINGER UNTIL
MIDNIGHT BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES TO LESS THAN 30%. FOR THE
4TH...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN AS SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILDS AND SLIDES
WEST OVER FL. WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH BROAD SFC RIDGING EAST OF THE MTNS. WILL ADVERTISE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME CHC AS VORT BAND RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE LINE PASSES
OVERHEAD ON MON. BY TUES...MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE H5 HIGH AND AHEAD OF SLOW OHIO VALLEY FRONT. EXPECT THE
CWA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF FRONTAL MCS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...BUILDING MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SCT SH/TS ON TUE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FRONT SLOWLY
PRESSES CLOSER TO THE FA AS ATMOS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST. GOING
TEMPS AND POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWFA. EXPECT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ALL TAF SITES BY MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAND WHERE RAIN FELL. MDLS STILL ADVERTISING LOW
LEVEL SELY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...DISAGREEMENT EXISTS REGARDING CIG HEIGHTS. LOOKS LIKE MVFR
CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY...WITH IFR AT KAVL. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
BEFORE NOON TODAY...BUT EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FLOW. MDLS AGREE ON AT LEAST LIKELY AFTERNOON POP...SO
HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR TO
BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY...UNLESS A TSRA MOVES OVER THE AIRFIELD.
VCTS ENDS...BUT VFR SHRA CONTINUES THRU 06Z. FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-040945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
542 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AND UPSTATE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

GAZ018-SCZ004-031630-
GREATER OCONEE-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TOCCOA
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT HARTWELL LAKE REGION...

A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA IS MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. BOATERS...SWIMMERS AND CAMPERS IN AND
AROUND LAKE HARTWELL ARE URGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS AS THIS
STORM NEARS AND PRODUCES WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

KRENTZ