Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  PRECIP TONIGHT HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS BUT MOSTLY ON TRACK.  STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOWS MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT.

MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

RAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY RAIN LATE
TONIGHT WITH A FEW REMAINING STORMS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN BEFORE THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM ARRIVES.  COULD BE A BETTER
RAIN MAKER.

THE MODEL PREFERENCE WAS GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE BLEND.  SO DID THE BEST
WITH THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOLLOWED HPC LEAD BY TRENDING TOWARD ENS MEAN GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY OF THE MDLS. THIS MEANS CHC PRECIP CONTINUING WED NITE
THRU THU NITE AS SFC LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH THEN UP THE COAST. SFC
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS SFC HIGH HOLDS ON THRU SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST BUT MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. COULD BE
SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WED NITE/THU AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. BEST
CHC OF MTN SNOW WILL BE THU NITE WHEN AIR WILL BE COLDEST. OTHERWISE
P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN. TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY
WHEN AIR MASS MODERATES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. MDLS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING
THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND 12Z
RAOBS. SFC DEW POINTS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS FCST...ESP BY THE NAM.
THIS KEEPS WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIP
MENTION UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z. MDLS DO AGREE ON MOISTURE RAPIDLY
INCREASING BY THEN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN MOVING IN AROUND THEN AS WELL. ISOLATED TSRA
STILL POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF
PRECIP HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. NAM SHOWS AREA OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS CREDIBLE AS EVEN THE GFS SHOWS
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO NAM TIMING
FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD THEM THRU THE MORNING MONDAY.
CIGS COULD LIFT TO VFR NEAR 18Z...BUT KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
CONSISTENCY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHOWERS. BUT
WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED KEPT THEM VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-141100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
536 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

GAZ018-026-028-029-132337-
ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-STEPHENS GA-
538 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ENTERING SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH
AS WELL AS BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FROM TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THIS PRESENT STORM THROUGHOUT THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

GAZ018-026-028-029-132337-
ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-STEPHENS GA-
538 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2005

CORRECTED FOR GRAMMER.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ENTERING SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH
AS WELL AS BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS PRESENT STORM THROUGHOUT THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

KRENTZ