Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ATMOSPHERE HAD DESTABILIZED WITH HEATING AND CAPES ACROSS PIEDMONT
WERE BTWN 2000-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTN. WITH A WEAK TROF IN THE LEE OF
THE MTNS...WEAK DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...PLUS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN THIS EVE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
HAVE GONE WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS THRU THIS EVE. WIND SHEAR IS
UNIMPRESSIVE AND WBZ IS BTWN 12- 13K FT SO STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THIS EVENING. AREAS
OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT STILL FCST TO
DIVE SE TOWARD AREA AND PUSH THRU CWA FRI...KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE
OF TSTMS OVER THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES S LATE FRI AND EXPECT SCT...MAINLY
LATE DAY CONVECTION SAT-SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA...SETTING
UP AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE SURGING UP ACROSS
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE IN FROM THE N-NE MON-TUE.
THIS PUTS THE CWA IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FEED WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT WITH AN H5
TROF OVER S CAN AND A HIGH OVER S FL...PUTTING CWA IN VERY WEAK
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING E. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THIS
PATTERN. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INTO MID WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG EAST FACING UPSLOPE
AREAS. UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT LATE WED AS UPPER TROF STARTS
TO DIG TO THE W...PUTTING CWA IN SW FLOW. A SURFACE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH AREA FROM THE W THU FOR CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE LEE...SO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...A
MENTION OF VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KAVL AND THE FOOTHILL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AT AROUND 20Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE FOG/
STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THE FACT THAT
THE GROUND HAS HAD ANOTHER DAY TO DRY OUT...THE FOG POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER FOR TOMORROW...EXCEPT AT SITES THAT HAPPEN
TO RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED VISBY IN THE
MVFR RANGE...WITH NO CEILINGS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-011015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
609 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
WIND GUSTS TO GREATER THAN 60 MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS A LITTLE GREATER FRIDAY DUE TO BETTER
DYNAMICS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
AGAIN...THE BEST COVERAGE AND BETTER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY EACH EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...AS OF NOW...FOR THE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY SHOULD STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ORGANIZE. SPOTTER ACTIVIATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MORGANTON           35.74N 81.73W
06/29/2005                   BURKE              NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE IN THE WORRY COMMUNITY. OTHER
            OUTAGES DUE TO LIGHTNING.

0630 PM     LIGHTNING        MORGANTON               35.74N 81.70W
06/29/2005                   BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LADY INJURIED AND FACE BURNED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE ON
            TELEPHONE AND PHONE EXPLODED. SHE WAS TRANSPORTED TO
            HOSPITAL FOR TREATMENT.

&&

TJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 W MORGANTON          35.74N 81.88W
06/29/2005                   BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            TREES, LIMBS, AND CAMPER AWNING BLOWN OFF AT LAKE JAMES
            CAMP GROUND AT BENFIELD LANDING. STORM CONTINUED FROM 630
            TO 715.

&&

TJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

NCZ036-037-057-010030-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOCKSVILLE...SALISBURY...STATESVILLE
736 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY AND INTERSTATE 77...APPROACHING
INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 830 PM. AREAS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM
INCLUDE UNION GROVE...SHEFFIELD...AND TURNERSBURG. BE PREPARED
FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WIND.

CSH