Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING UP FROM THE S-SW BUT AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS E OF AREA. UPPER TROF IS MOVING E AND THE W PARTS OF
CWA THAT GOT MORE SUN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE CONVECTION INTO
THIS EVE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT WHILE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK SUBSIDENSE
...SO WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING IN LATE
THU...SHOULD ENHANCE AFTN CONVECTION AND HAVE GONE WITH SOLID
CHANCE POPS THU AFTN-EVE. COLD FRONT STILL FCST TO DIVE SE INTO
CWA THU EVE INTO FRI...KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH FRI. FRONT PUSHES S OF AREA LATE FRI AND EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N...SETTING UP AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH A MOISTURE FEED OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE IN FROM THE N-NE SUN-WED.
THIS PUTS THE WHOLE AREA IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FEED WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT WITH
AN H5 TROF OVER S CAN AND A HIGH OVER S FL...PUTTING CWA IN VERY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EXTREMELY WEAK WAVES TRANSLATING E.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY SEEMS THE MOST LOGICAL
SOLUTION FOR THIS PATTERN. WILL KEEP 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE
ALONG EAST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
FROM THE WEST. WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER LAYER RH VALUES...AND WITH BEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE NW AND E OF THE CWFA...CONVECTION IS
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS ON PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS
STILL QUITE UNSTABLE...AND AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...THINK THAT IT IS BEST TO KEEP TEMPO GROUPS IN MOST OF THE TAFS
FOR THE LATE AFTN. ONLY EXCEPTION IS KCLT. AS THEY ARE STILL WELL
UNDER THE CI CANOPY...DON/T THINK ANYTHING WL DEVELOP THERE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HRS. MOS IS NOT GOING FOR MUCH FOG OR LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...W/A LIGHT SW FLOW AND DWPTS NEAR
70...THINK THAT STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM...AND HAVE BROUGHT IFR
CIGS INTO ALL TAF SITES BY 0800 UTC. THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT WITH SW FLOW...THINK THAT STRATUS WL HOLD OFF
A FEW HRS MORE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-301000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
550 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MOIST
GROUND...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

HG