Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 202301
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

NCC099-210030-
JACKSON NC-
659 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR JACKSON
COUNTY...

AT 655 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NO 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL 
WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE 
EARLY THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR 
HIGHWAY 281 AND CHARLEY CREEK ROAD.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SYLVA...
CULLOWHEE AND BALSAM.

REMEMBER THAT MOST FLOOD FATALITIES ARE THE RESULT OF DRIVING INTO
FLOODED STREETS...ROADS...OR STREAMS...OR OCCUR WHEN CHILDREN PLAY IN
OR NEAR STORM DRAINS OR STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3501 8314 3504 8300 3526 8293 3551 8316
      3547 8336

$$
07

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 210028
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

NCC099-210037-
JACKSON NC-
827 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JACKSON COUNTY EXPIRES AT 830 PM
EDT...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED THIS EVENING ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY...AND NO 
FURTHER FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL 
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 830 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 3501 8314 3504 8300 3526 8293 3551 8316
      3547 8336

$$
HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
RIDGETOPS PROVIDING LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON. CELLS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE
MID LEVELS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...BUT SVR THREAT LOWER THAN FLOODING CHC. HAVE GONE WITH EARLY
LIKELY POP NC FOOTHILLS/NC MTNS SOUTH AND WEST OF FRENCH BROAD...AND
OVER SC/GA MTNS. SCT POP ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT BEST CHC FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE MTN VALLEYS.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST...BUT STILL PRETTY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. ALL IN ALL...DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANGE TO OUR
PERSISTENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...A CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100.

IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO MCS EVOLUTION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD STILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING...WHETHER IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTHEAST IS STILL
DEBATABLE. NOT THAT IT IS CORRECT...BUT THE 12 UTC GFS IS NOW
SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
MTNS FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE CWFA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME SUPPORT ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 12 UTC
NAM WITH S/WV PASSAGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE POPS OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL DIURNAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AS IN
EARLIER RUNS...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER/DEEPER WITH
MAIN S/WV PASSAGE...WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...PLAN ON LEAVING CHC POPS AS IS UNTIL 06Z
SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CWFA LOOKS TO COME UNDER S/WV RIDGING SATURDAY WITH DEEPER RH
DISPLACED OFF TO OUR SOUTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP WITH
FTHL/PIEDMONT MAXES IN THE MID 90S. WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE
BETTER RH AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT...PLAN ON CONTINUING DIURNAL
CHC POPS FOR JUST THE MTNS. LARGE UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD EVEN
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A FEW MORE HOT
DAYS. AGAIN...ANY DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCE WOULD LOOK TO BE
ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR DEWPOINT TRENDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING REACHED. PLAN ON SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK
TOWARD CLIMO AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS START OFF WITH VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS XCPT KCLT WHERE TSRA STILL
QUITE A DISTANCE AWAY. DO HAVE CB MENTION THERE. WILL AMD IF/WHEN
CELLS APPROACH AIRFIELDS. GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT WITH MVFR FOG
CHANCE OVERNIGHT...XCPT AT KAVL WHERE IFR FOG/CIGS LOOK LIKELY. DID
INCLUDE MVFR FOG AT KHKY/KAND WHERE IT IS FAVORED ACCORDING TO
CLIMO. RESTRICTIONS END QUICKLY...ABOUT 13Z...THU MORNING. VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH/CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-211045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
631 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE CAESPSGSP FOR MORE INFORMATION. ONE OR TWO
OF TODAYS STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LANE