Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO
MID 70S AND NO CAPPING INVERSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SCATTERED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ONLY
REAL TRIGGER IS A ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT HAS FADED DURING
THE MORNING.  STILL THE FOCUS OF PRECIP SHOULD BE NEAR THAT ZONE IN
THE NORTHEAST PART OF CWA. MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PRONE AREAS. MORNING MINS RAISED SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLOTTE AREA BECAUSE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
SOUTH...CONTINUING TO PLACE THE CWFA WITHIN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES. SO...A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED WESTERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING...LEADING TO THE ONGOING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. 12 UTC NAM CREEPS LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES UP EACH DAY...BUT GOING FCST OF DAILY LOWER 90S
ACRS THE FTHLS/PIEDMONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS FALLING ALL ACRS THE EASTERN U.S.
DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE TO TIME RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROTATING
INTO THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CHANCES THURSDAY
AND KEEP POPS GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY.

BEST TO CONTINUE WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING
UNTIL HOPEFULLY SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM GOING SILENT 20 POP SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
LACK OF A SYNOPTIC LEVEL TRIGGER WILL PREVENT MAJOR CONVECTION
OUTBREAK TODAY.  BUT WITH CAPES IN THE ONE TO TWO THOUSAND RANGE
AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN AND EVE.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS DIMINISHED A LITTLE
THIS MORNING WITH PREFERABLE AREA IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. HKY IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ENHANCED CONVECTION.
LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL MEAN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
REDUCING POPS AT ANY PARTICULAR POINT. MORNING FOG WILL DEPEND
ON PRECIP THIS EVENING.  GOING WITH MAV MOS WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
AVL AND MAYBE ANDERSON AND HKY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VAD/CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-191030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
629 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS...WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LANE