Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 131658
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

NCC027-131720-
CALDWELL NC-
1255 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTY...

AT 1245 PM EDT...THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED RAIN OF ONE TO TWO 
INCHES IN NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY HAS MOVED NORTHEAST AND OUT OF 
THE COUNTY.  REPORTS INDICATE THAT WILSON CREEK WAS A LITTLE OUT OF 
ITS BANKS LATE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL PRIVATE BRIDGES 
COVERED IN WATER.  OTHER REPORTS IN THE PATTERSON AREA INDICATE THAT 
THE YADKIN RIVER WAS ALSO JUST OUT OF ITS BANKS.  THERE WAS SOME 
DITCH AND PRIVATE PROPERTY EROSION AS WELL FROM THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH 
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.  IF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN CROSSES 
NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY...FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE 
HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS.

THIS FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REMEMBER IN FLOODING SITUATIONS...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO 
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO 
GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING 
WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3606 8140 3587 8167 3594 8179 3614 8175

$$

OUTLAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING AND
ASCENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 402 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
CALLS TO THE MOUNTAINS REVEALED A COUPLE NEW AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
FLOODING. CONSIDERING THAT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP...THINK THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET IS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 301 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF
INDY. ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A SHARP MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY CAN
BE SEEN OVER ERN TN WITH HIGHER RH AIR OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND
MUCH DRIER AIR OVER MOST OF TN/KY AND NW GA. SOME TSTMS HAVE FIRED
ALONG THIS MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER NRN
GA. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BECOME
STEADILY WEAKER THE PAST FEW HRS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF
GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER WRN GA...WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE LIMITING
STREAMLINE BETWEEN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FEEDING THE REMNANTS OF
ARLENE AND THE SUBSIDENCE AND VEERING FLOW TO ITS WEST. THIS AREA
OF CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SHOWN TO WEAKEN ON THE NAM AND RUC...TO THE
POINT WHERE IT CAN/T BE IDENTIFIED BY 0900 UTC.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND PLAN TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRE AT 6 AM. THAT SAID...WL STILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
SRN ESCARPMENT DURING THE MORNING HRS AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES.

LATER TDA THE NAM DEVELOPS A LLVL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
CAPES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- RATHER ODD FOR THE NAM -- REMAIN
ABOVE 1000 J/KG UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC TNGT. AND THERE IS GOOD
LLVL MASS CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS AS WELL. THEREFORE WL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE NC MTNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TNGT. WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO
AGGRAVATE CURRENT FLOODING. CERTAINLY THIS WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT THIS WL NOT CAUSE ME TO EXTEND THE WATCH.

CAPES REALLY SHOOT UP TUE...AND AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT WE WL BE
LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PULSE SEVERE THREAT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WL BE WEAK...SO DON/T THINK CONVECTION WL BE VERY
ORGANIZED AND IT MIGHT BE A STRUGGLE TO SEE SCT COVERAGE. STILL...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP POPS IN
THE ZONES.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY THAT A DYING MCS COULD AFFECT THE NC MTNS
LATE TUE HIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TUE AND INTO WED
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BOTH TUE AND WED LOOK TO BE HOT AND HUMID...BUT DON/T THINK
CONDITIONS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS OR NE GA WL BE BAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY KIND OF HEAT ADVISORY ATTM.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
COOLER AND DRIER TREND BEYOND WED STILL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
GFS AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED.

AVIATION...
WITH CONTINUATION OF MOIST S/SE FLOW...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...VISBY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHOWER OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW MAY WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH AROUND SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY AND SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT MOST LOCALES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HEATING SHOULD BRING ABOUT GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY ATTM TO PINPOINT A WINDOW
OF TIME IN WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY...SO HAVE LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH W/ CB MENTION AT ALL SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT
KAVL...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNSTABLE. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS THERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001-002-004-005 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-141015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
601 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH NOON FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WEST
OF ASHEVILLE...THE UPSTATE ALONG AND WEST OF EASLEY AND FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA ALONG AND NORTH OF TOCCOA.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT AFFECT A LARGE
AREA...ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY TO MONITOR STREAM LEVELS AND
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

MCAVOY