Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 280708
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

SCC045-280945-
GREENVILLE SC-
203 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 AM EST FOR CENTRAL
GREENVILLE COUNTY...

AT 157 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS GREENVILLE 
COUNTY. STREAM GAUGES INDICATED THAT FLOODING CONTINUED ALONG THE 
REEDY RIVER IN DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...AND ALONG BRUSHY CREEK ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF THE CITY. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS REPORT SOME 
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF GREENVILLE...AND IN 
GREER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY 
RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG OTHER CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS ACROSS THE 
COUNTY THIS MORNING.     

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TRAVELERS
REST...TAYLORS...MARIETTA...GREER AND GREENVILLE.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3456 8242 3462 8221 3477 8217 3506 8221
      3502 8254 3484 8247

$$
LANE

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 280846
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

SCC045-280945-
GREENVILLE SC-
346 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 AM EST FOR CENTRAL
GREENVILLE COUNTY...

AT 335 AM EST...AUTOMATED STREAM GAUGES CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT 
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE REEDY RIVER IN DOWNTOWN 
GREENVILLE...WHERE THE RIVER HAD RISEN TO OVER 10 FEET. FLOODING WAS 
ALSO OCCURRING ALONG BRUSHY CREEK ON THE EAST SIDE OF GREENVILLE.  
THERE MAY BE OTHER CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND NEW 
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 445 AM.      

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3456 8242 3462 8221 3477 8217 3506 8221
      3502 8254 3484 8247

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH 99 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN
THE ZFP UPDATE. AFTER FURTHER CONTEMPLATION AND MONITORING OF RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE FALLEN OFF THE FENCE AGAINST FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE
ATTM. IR IMAGERY INDICATES COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF
THE UPSTATE/SOUTHWEST NC REGION ATTM...WHILE ADVECTION OF DRIER
MID/UPPER AIR IS RESULTING IN MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AS DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO WORK EAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THERES TOO MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN FFG/S AND
CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO WARRANT A WATCH ATTM. WILL HOWEVER
INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST...AND UPDATE THE
HWO/SPS TO TALK UP THE FLOOD POTENTIAL A BIT MORE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1000 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF POTENT UPPER LOW IS
RESULTING IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF RADAR ECHOES/INCREASED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN
NC MNTNS/FOOTHILLS. PWATS FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE RUNNING 150 TO
250% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION ATTM. THE SURFACE LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS QUITE STABLE AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE CAD
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE GREENWOOD AREA ATTM.
CONSIDERING THIS...THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAY BE HEAVY/POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
FOR HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT...WHERE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO
RAINFALL. ATTM...WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER ARE ONLY AROUND 25
KNOTS...PER VAD WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER...00Z NAM AND GFS DEPICT
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 06Z...AS LOW LEVELS RESPOND TO INCR
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. CONSIDERING RECENT INCLUSION OF OUR AREA IN A
MDT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WILL SERIOUSLY CONTEMPLATE A FLOOD
WATCH...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN
EXPOSURE AREAS OF THE MNTNS/FHILLS.

BY ABOUT 9Z...MID/UPPER DRY SLOT EVIDENT ACROSS AL/MIDDLE TENN
ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND CONVECTION TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...COINCIDENT WITH THIS DRYING...THE NAM AND RUC ADVECT A
PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MANIFESTS AS
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DAMMING AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 442 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH #99.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 325 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH BOX LOOMS OMINOUSLY TO THE WEST OF OUR CWFA...ONE
COUNTY AWAY FROM OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA WARNING UMBRELLA. KFFC 88-D
HAS SHOWN A RAPID GROWTH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE GEORGIA CONVECTION IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST RAPIDLY...AND FORWARD SPEEDS COULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LARGE HAIL
UPSTREAM...UNDER THE MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
SWATH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
WERE DEVELOPING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THEIR BEST THROUGH 06Z...THEN ESPECIALLY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGD TO VEER SIGNIFICANTLY SO THAT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS NOT AS GREAT.

CWFA REMAINS STABLE AND WEDGED FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH STEADY RISES
IN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE DAMMING
REGION...EVEN AS DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE AFFECTED THE NORTH.
AS THE APPROACHING GEORGIA CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER AND STABLE AIR
OVER OUR AREA...INITIAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE BROAD CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL
HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE STABLE WEDGE OF AIR FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. INTERIOR DAMMING REGION LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL SCOURING OCCURS LATE TONITE.

EASTERN ZONES...AND THOSE SOUTHEAST ZONES BORDERING THE COLUMBIA
FOREAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT EROSION
OF THE STABLE COOL LAYER IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE THERMAL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY HAS WORKED WELL INTO THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS NOT
FAR TO OUR EAST OR SOUTH. THE WINDOW IS CLOSING...BUT THERE IS STILL TIME
TO ERODE PART OF THE WEDGE FOR OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES TO OUR SURFACE FEATURES DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. IF THE APPROACHING GEORGIA CONVECTION
DOES NOT ERODE THE WEDGE...WHICH WE THOUGHT WAS POSSIBLE EARLIER BUT NOT
SO CONFIDENT NOW...AND IF THE THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY DOES NOT ERODE
THE WEDGE ON OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY...THEN IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE WEDGE WILL HOLD UNTIL EROSION IS FORCED TONITE WITH LIFTING OF
THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF.

DESPITE LACK OF IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THERE ARE STILL
A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. CWFA IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET BY MORNING. GFS HAS A SUSPICIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
VORT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONITE...AND AN EVEN MORE SUSPICIOUS
SPLIT OF THE UPPER JET THIS EVENING...WHICH CREATES A TREMENDOUS
UPPER DIVERGENT BULLSEYE. AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR REMAINS DECENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND WE EXPECT BROAD DIFFERNTIAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION...ESPCEIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT AS GOOD AS EARLIER.

COULD ALSO SEE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES LATE...AND
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH ETA AND GFS KEEP A PERSISTENT 30 TO 45 KTS
OF 85H FLOW INTO THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
WE TENTATVIELY ARE ENCODING RAINFALL OF CLOSE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE
ESCARPMENT LOCATIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD  WATCH FOR NOW.

THAT ALL BEING SAID...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TONITE AND EARLY
MONDAY. UPPER LOW TO CROSS AREA MONDAY. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS STRONG CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
OUR NORTHERN TIER MONDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

NOT MUCH ON THE HORIZON...FOR NOW ANWAY...MONDAY NITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST HPC MANUAL PROGS HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SAT. THE HPC TIMING IS
QUITE CLOSE TO THAT OF THE 1200 RUN OF THE GFS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER STRONG TROF...AND UNLIKE WITH THE PAST COUPLE VIGOROUS SRN
STREAM SHORT WAVES...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY INDICATION OF
COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE...
BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THERE COULD BE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE FRI AND EARLY
SAT. THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS BENIGN...AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC/ENSEMBLE MEX MOS.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE IS WHEN AND WHERE THE WEDGE WL
ERODE. ATTM WNDS AT ALL TAFS SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS ARE OUT OF THE
ENE TO NE. THIS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 45 AND 90 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE NAM SURFACE WINDS WHICH WERE SOUTHEAST EVERYWHERE AT 18
UTC. THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST...WHICH
WL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL WINDS...DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL TO SCOUR IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE. THIS
HAPPENS TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE TAFS SITES ARE...AND HAVE FOLLOWED
MUCH CLOSER TO THE RUC WHICH THROUGH 0300 UTC HAS ONLY KCLT EVEN
BEGINNING TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. CIGS SHOULD HOLD ON IN THE
LIFR TO VLIFR RANGE AT MOST SITES...AND AS THE COLD DOME BECOMES
SHALLOWER...VSBYS WL PROBABLY GET WORSE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE SHOULD RAPIDLY SCOUR LATE TNGT AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES THE
REGION...AND HAVE MOST AREAS RAPIDLY IMPROVING 0600-0800 UTC.

WILL TEMPO IN A 4 HR PERIOD OF THUNDER TRYING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
PERIOD WHEN TSTMS WL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME
FRAME ROUGHLY 4 HRS BEFORE A STRONG MCS CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
ABOUT 0200 AND 0500 UTC TNGT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-281100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1143 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  THE THREAT INCLUDES
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.  THE GREATEST RISK OF
THIS SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.  ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD
AFFECT OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AS A LINE OF
STORMS SWEEPS ACROSS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAPID RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.  FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED
AT 1141 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT THE WIND TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
MPH.  WIND IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BE BREEZY AT 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTY.  THERE COULD BE MORE STORMS WITH HAIL DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
913 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ017-280300-
HABERSHAM GA-
913 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

THE FOLLOWING COUNTY IS REMOVED FROM TORNADO WATCH 100...

IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

HABERSHAM.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-281100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1141 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN COOLED AIR HAS LEFT A BOUNDARY SEPARATING COOL STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTH...AND WARMER MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS
PERSISTED ALL DAY...BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A BIT IN EASTERN SECTIONS
OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY RISING
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA FROM ANDERSON AND GREENWOOD OVER
TO MONROE. THE COOL AIR REMAINED FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...FROM AROUND
GREENVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM GEORGIA HAVE NOT
PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAIN IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM ELBERTON AND
ABBEVILLE TO MONROE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE
IS A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...EVEN AFTER THE STORMS START MOVING OVER
THE COLDER AIR AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 85.  THE STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY HOWEVER...AS
LONG AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED.

AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST LATE TONIGHT...MORE UNSTABLE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BRIEFLY JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH SOME FLASH
FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

MOORE