Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 202055
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
453 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

MIC077-202130-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-050720T2130Z/
KALAMAZOO MI-
453 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM COOPER TO ENGLISHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  THIS LINE 
OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EASTERN VAN 
BUREN COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHLAND PARK...MILWOOD...SCHOOLCRAFT AND RICHLAND BY 500 PM EDT
  YORKVILLE...MORROW LAKE BY 505 PM EDT
  EVANS AND EDGERTON BY 510 PM EDT

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4240 8575 4242 8575 4242 8532 4212 8532
      4209 8530 4209 8541 4210 8542 4210 8577
      4239 8577

$$

RG

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 202130
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
530 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

MIC077-202140-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-050720T2130Z/
KALAMAZOO MI-
530 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE  
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4240 8575 4242 8575 4242 8532 4212 8532
      4209 8530 4209 8541 4210 8542 4210 8577
      4239 8577

$$

RG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...AND CHANCE FOR MORE
CONVECTION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...ONGOING LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST COVERAGE
AND STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TAPER POPS OFF TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL END POPS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS MODELS WANT TO KEEP THREAT OF SOME CONVECTION GOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND FOR NOW WILL GO CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE.

NEXT THREAT OF CONVECTION IS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UP
TO TODAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THESE PERIODS WILL END UP
DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. GOING FORECAST IS DRY FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT POPS WILL BE NEEDED IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE IN THEIR CURRENT DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
TRENDS IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HELP
OF THE LLJ. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY IS GOING TO GET HUNG UP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP OFF TO
OUR WEST AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. BEING IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING COOLER DRIER AIR TO OUR NORTH FROM VERY
HUMID AIR TO OUR SOUTH WE BELIEVE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

OSTUNO LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-211030-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
302 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING AREAS FROM LUDINGTON TO
SOUTH HAVEN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARDS LANSING AND
JACKSON BY EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO GRAND RAPIDS TO BATTLE
CREEK. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESES STORMS WILL BE HIGH
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH.

THE HIGH WINDS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED INTO THIS EVENING.

WDM OSTUNO