Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 140045
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
845 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

MIC025-140055-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-050714T0115Z/
CALHOUN MI-
845 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CALHOUN COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO
LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4222 8490 4238 8500 4231 8528 4209 8528

$$

LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
445 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SE
CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS/INTENSE THIS EVENING AS
IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SVR WET MICROBURST CANNOT BE RULE OUT. LOSS OF
HEATING SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THERE IS A DEW POINT FRONT CURRENTLY SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH NRN LWR
MI WHICH IS TOUCHING OF A FEW STORMS AROUND HTL...WHILE THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND FROM MKG TO MOP CONTINUES TO SHRINK/WEAKEN.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NRN CWFA AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SSE.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OVER SRN INDIANA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... PARTICULARLY IN THE SRN CWFA AND IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS, WERE STILL GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT
THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS. JUST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW, SEVERAL
MODELS MAINTAIN A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO
BEFORE GETTING KICKED OUT BY THE LATE WEEKEND BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.

SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ALOFT...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND WILL GENERATE A FLOW FROM THE
GULF AND THAT WILL KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. WELL HAVE
SCT SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRY WX SUNDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. THE NEXT WX MAKER THEN BECOMES THE
LOW IN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLY ON MONDAY. WELL NEED TO MENTION TSRA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PCPN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. BACK TO
DRY WX ON WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MEADE 93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

LMZ843>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-141055-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
1145 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGEST SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON
TO ALMA LINE...AND BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND 10 PM. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION... BUT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS COULD
CAUSE SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY...AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OSTUNO MEADE